COMMERCIALIZATION OF MAJOR EFFICIENCY-ENHANCING VEHICULAR ENGINE INNOVATIONS: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE MICRO- AND MACROECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS

Both a general and a particular view of the process and macroeconomic side effects of engine innovation are given. The history of engine innovation in automobiles, railroads, and ships is reviewed and related to the potential path automotive engine innovation may take toward the turn of the century. It is shown that automotive engine innovation in the past has been costly, especially to lower-income consumers, and that potential future adoption of Stirling and Brayton (gas turbine) engines is unlikely to be any different. The danger of negative economic side effects during the innovation process for the automobile industry and nation are noted. Careful corporate and national preparation for automotive innovation is suggested. To that end, advanced (year 2000) engine and vehicle characteristics are used to estimate that the Stirling and Brayton engines are each likely to have specific, different markets. Driving-cycle behavior of the engines in urban and suburban settings is examined to show that the Stirling's most likely market will be as a specialized urban vehicle, whereas the Brayton's best market will be as a specialized suburban and intercity vehicle. It is argued that neither engine has the properties necessary to become a universal replacement for all-purpose vehicles using advanced Otto-cycle and diesel engines, but that proper use of these vehicles could ultimately help to efficiently mitigate national problems of urban air pollution (the Stirling in particular) or excessive fuel consumption or both. Finally, the observation is made that recent methods of the Environmental Protection Agency for evaluating vehicle fuel efficiency could incorrectly lead to a negative economic evaluation of advanced Stirling and Brayton engines, tending to unjustifiably retard their introduction to the market.