Prognostic utility of rhythmic components in 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring for the risk stratification of chronic kidney disease patients with cardiovascular co-morbidity

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents a significant global burden. Hypertension is a modifiable risk factor for rapid progression of CKD. Methods:We extend the risk stratification by introducing the non-parametric determination of rhythmic components in 24-hour profiles of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) in the African American Study for Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) cohort and the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: We find that rhythmic profiling of BP through JTK_Cycle analysis identifies subgroups of CRIC participants at advanced risk of cardiovascular death. CRIC participants with a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and absent cyclic components in their BP profile had at any time a 3.4-times higher risk of cardiovascular death than CVD patients with cyclic components present in their BP profile (HR: 3.38, 95% CI: 1.45-7.88, p=0.005). This substantially increased risk was independent of whether ABPM followed a dipping or non-dipping pattern whereby non-dipping or reverse dipping were not significantly associated with cardiovascular death in patients with prior CVD (p>0.1). In the AASK cohort, unadjusted models demonstrate a higher risk in reaching end stage renal disease among participants without rhythmic ABPM components (HR:1.80, 95% CI: 1.10-2.96); however, full adjustment abolished this association. Conclusions: This study proposes rhythmic blood pressure components as a novel biomarker to unmask excess risk among CKD patients with prior cardiovascular disease.