Wind Speed Prediction of Target Station from Reference Stations Data

The aim of the present study is to apply an artificial neural network method for daily, weekly, and monthly wind speed predictions in some parts of the Aegean and Marmara region of Turkey that demonstrate acceptable cross-correlations. The wind data taken with an interval of one hour were measured by the General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey Administration at four different measuring stations, namely, Gökçeada, Foca, Gelibolu, and Bababurnu. The wind speeds of three different stations were used as input neurons, while the wind speed of the target station was used as an output neuron in the artificial neural network architecture. The results obtained with this model were compared with the measured data. Errors obtained in this model are within acceptable limits. Results show that the artificial neural network method can successfully predict the daily, weekly, and monthly wind speed of any target station using the measured data of surrounding stations.

[1]  Helena A. Flocas,et al.  Simulation of seasonal precipitation and raindays over Greece: a statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) , 2007 .

[2]  Ioannis B. Theocharis,et al.  Locally recurrent neural networks for long-term wind speed and power prediction , 2006, Neurocomputing.

[3]  Liu Yang,et al.  An analysis of thermal and solar zone radiation models using an Angstrom–Prescott equation and artificial neural networks , 2008 .

[4]  H. Hartmann,et al.  Predicting summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin with neural networks , 2008 .

[5]  Gholamhassan Najafi,et al.  Application of artificial neural networks for the prediction of performance and exhaust emissions in SI engine using ethanol- gasoline blends , 2010 .

[6]  FiratMahmut,et al.  Generalized Regression Neural Networks and Feed Forward Neural Networks for prediction of scour depth around bridge piers , 2009 .

[7]  Wai Ming To,et al.  Modeling of electricity consumption in the Asian gaming and tourism center—Macao SAR, People's Republic of China , 2008 .

[8]  Shuhui Li,et al.  Using neural networks to estimate wind turbine power generation , 2001 .

[9]  Sedat Akkurt,et al.  Artificial neural networks applications in building energy predictions and a case study for tropical climates , 2005 .

[10]  A. Hepbasli,et al.  A review on the development of wind energy in Turkey , 2004 .

[11]  Ali Kahraman,et al.  Wind energy potential in Antakya and Iskenderun regions, Turkey , 2004 .

[12]  Christos Schizas,et al.  Wind Speed Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks , 1999 .

[13]  Adnan Sözen,et al.  Forecasting based on neural network approach of solar potential in Turkey , 2005 .

[14]  C. Pérez-Llera,et al.  Local Short-Term Prediction of Wind Speed: A Neural Network Analysis , 2002 .

[15]  Kasım Koçak,et al.  Practical ways of evaluating wind speed persistence , 2008 .

[16]  Soteris A. Kalogirou,et al.  Artificial neural networks in renewable energy systems applications: a review , 2001 .

[17]  Mohamed Mohandes,et al.  Support vector machines for wind speed prediction , 2004 .

[19]  A. Keyhani,et al.  An assessment of wind energy potential as a power generation source in the capital of Iran, Tehran , 2010 .

[20]  M. C. Deo,et al.  Forecasting wind with neural networks , 2003 .

[21]  G. S. Sekhon,et al.  An artificial neural network for modeling reliability, availability and maintainability of a repairable system , 2006, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[22]  Mehmet Bilgili,et al.  Prediction of Long-term Monthly Temperature and Rainfall in Turkey , 2009 .

[23]  Mohsen Assadi,et al.  Development of an artificial neural network model for the steam process of a coal biomass cofired combined heat and power (CHP) plant in Sweden , 2007 .

[24]  S. Morid,et al.  Drought forecasting using artificial neural networks and time series of drought indices , 2007 .

[25]  Ahmet Öztopal,et al.  Artificial neural network approach to spatial estimation of wind velocity data , 2006 .

[26]  Kelvin K. W. Yau,et al.  Predicting electricity energy consumption: A comparison of regression analysis, decision tree and neural networks , 2007 .

[27]  Mehmet Sunar Artificial neural networks for thermopiezoelectric systems , 1999 .

[28]  Abdallah Al-Shehri,et al.  Artificial neural network for forecasting residential electrical energy , 1999 .

[29]  Mahmud Güngör,et al.  Generalized Regression Neural Networks and Feed Forward Neural Networks for prediction of scour depth around bridge piers , 2009, Adv. Eng. Softw..

[30]  H. K. Cigizoglu,et al.  Forecast of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature time series by three artificial neural network methods , 2008 .

[31]  R. Hanley,et al.  Artificial neural network application for multi-ecosystem carbon flux simulation , 2005 .

[32]  M. Bilgili,et al.  Application of artificial neural networks for the wind speed prediction of target station using reference stations data , 2007 .

[33]  Lucas Alados-Arboledas,et al.  Neural network for the estimation of UV erythemal irradiance using solar broadband irradiance , 2007 .

[34]  A. Çavusoglu,et al.  A classification mechanism for determining average wind speed and power in several regions of Turkey using artificial neural networks , 2005 .

[35]  Wei-Zhen Lu,et al.  Potential assessment of a neural network model with PCA/RBF approach for forecasting pollutant trends in Mong Kok urban air, Hong Kong. , 2004, Environmental research.

[36]  Z. Şen,et al.  Regional assessment of wind power in western Turkey by the cumulative semivariogram method , 1997 .

[37]  Hamdy K. Elminir,et al.  Prediction of hourly and daily diffuse fraction using neural network, as compared to linear regression models , 2007 .

[38]  D.A. Bechrakis,et al.  Correlation of wind speed between neighboring measuring stations , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[39]  Constantinos S. Pattichis,et al.  Classification of rainfall variability by using artificial neural networks , 2001 .

[40]  Athanasios Sfetsos,et al.  A novel approach for the forecasting of mean hourly wind speed time series , 2002 .

[41]  J. C. Quadrado,et al.  Wind speed prediction using artificial neural networks , 2005 .