The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles

This paper reviews major features of the development of economic indicator analysis (EIA), notably its contribution to identifying, understanding, explaining and forecasting business cycles. The paper highlights the substantial pioneering role of Dr Geoffrey H. Moore in this development. The paper reviews some key issues regarding the selection and classification of economic indicators; and the methodologies developed to use these indicators to identify and measure business cycles on national, regional and sectoral bases. After making an overall assessment of EIA, acknowledgement is given to the widespread development and applications of EIA around the world to study the co-movements of key economic variables and to forshadow changes in them.

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