Estimation of Failure Probability in Water Pipes Network Using Statistical Model

In this paper, a statistical model is presented for decision making in repairing water pipes network. The water distribution system has been considered as a "repairable" system which is under repeating failure modes. From this, a practical model for anticipating the failure of the water pipes in repairable systems has been presented using the trend renewal process concept. In this process, the statistical Power law has been used for projecting the failure rate to account for the effects of repairs and for different failure modes in estimation of failure intensity. After finding the failures as a function of time, the reliability of the system efficiency is then estimated using survival analysis. At the end, a sample pipes network has been modeled using presented statistical model and the values of failure intensities with respect to time and the curve for reliability function has been found.

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