论文信息 - On economically tracking a variable environment

On economically tracking a variable environment

Abstract This paper presents a simple model of how an animal should best use experience to track a changing environment. The model supposes that the environment switches between good and bad states according to a first-order Markov chain. The optimal sampling behavior is characterized in terms of the stability of runs (the probability that the environment will stay in the same state from one time to the next) and the relative costs of two kinds of errors: sampling and overrun errors. This model suggests further experimental and theoretical problems.

David W. Stephens | D. Stephens

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