A robust transportation signal control problem accounting for traffic dynamics

Transportation system analysis must rely on predictions of the future that, by their very nature, contain substantial uncertainty. Future demand, demographics, and network capacities are only a few of the parameters that must be accounted for in both the planning and every day operations of transportation networks. While many repercussions of uncertainty exist, a primary concern in traffic operations is to develop efficient traffic signal designs that satisfy certain measures of short term future system performance while accounting for the different possible realizations of traffic state. As a result,uncertainty has to be incorporated in the design of traffic signal systems. Current dynamic traffic equilibrium models accounting for signal design, however, are not suitable for quantifying network performance over the range of possible scenarios and in analyzing the robust performance of the system. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new approach-robust system optimal signal control model; a supply-side within day operational transportation model where future transportation demand is assumed to be uncertain. A robust dynamic system optimal model with an embedded cell transmission model is formulated. Numerical analysis are performed on a test network to illustrate the benefits of accounting for uncertainty and robustness.