Mission Reliability Modeling of Missile Defense System Based on Phase Mission Bayesian Networks

In order to evaluate mission reliability of missile defense system(MDS),the definition of mission reliability for MDS is given.The phase-Bayesian networks(phase-BN) reliability model is built.Then,the phase-BN composes to phased mission system Bayesian networks(PMS-BN) and calculation methods are discussed.The solution accuracy and calculation complexity are analyzed by comparing the solution with Markov model and Fault Tree.