Partially Generative Neural Networks for Gang Crime Classification with Partial Information

More than 1 million homicides, robberies, and aggravated assaults occur in the United States each year. These crimes are often further classified into different types based on the circumstances surrounding the crime (e.g., domestic violence, gang-related). Despite recent technological advances in AI and machine learning, these additional classification tasks are still done manually by specially trained police officers. In this paper, we provide the first attempt to develop a more automatic system for classifying crimes. In particular, we study the question of classifying whether a given violent crime is gang-related. We introduce a novel Partially Generative Neural Networks (PGNN) that is able to accurately classify gang-related crimes both when full information is available and when there is only partial information. Our PGNN is the first generative-classification model that enables to work when some features of the test examples are missing. Using a crime event dataset from Los Angeles covering 2014-2016, we experimentally show that our PGNN outperforms all other typically used classifiers for the problem of classifying gang-related violent crimes.

[1]  P ? ? ? ? ? ? ? % ? ? ? ? , 1991 .

[2]  Matthew S. Gerber,et al.  Predicting crime using Twitter and kernel density estimation , 2014, Decis. Support Syst..

[3]  Jimmy Ba,et al.  Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization , 2014, ICLR.

[4]  G. G. Stokes "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[5]  Trevor Darrell,et al.  Learning with Side Information through Modality Hallucination , 2016, 2016 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR).

[6]  Yan Liu,et al.  Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[7]  George E. Tita,et al.  THE ECOLOGY OF GANG TERRITORIAL BOUNDARIES , 2012 .

[8]  Alex R. Piquero,et al.  ON AMBIGUITY IN PERCEPTIONS OF RISK:IMPLICATIONS FOR CRIMINAL DECISION MAKING AND DETERRENCE* , 2011 .

[9]  Jeffrey Dean,et al.  Distributed Representations of Words and Phrases and their Compositionality , 2013, NIPS.

[10]  Victor M. Rios Street Gang Patterns and Policies , 2009 .

[11]  Alan J. Lizotte,et al.  Gun Ownership and Gang Membership , 1995 .

[12]  David M Kreindler,et al.  The effects of the irregular sample and missing data in time series analysis. , 2006, Nonlinear dynamics, psychology, and life sciences.

[13]  Xiaofeng Wang,et al.  Automatic Crime Prediction Using Events Extracted from Twitter Posts , 2012, SBP.

[14]  D. Percival,et al.  Wavelet variance analysis for gappy time series , 2010 .

[15]  John Van Hoewyk,et al.  A multivariate technique for multiply imputing missing values using a sequence of regression models , 2001 .

[16]  C. Martin 2015 , 2015, Les 25 ans de l’OMC: Une rétrospective en photos.

[17]  George E. Tita,et al.  Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime , 2011 .

[18]  A. Stomakhin,et al.  Reconstruction of missing data in social networks based on temporal patterns of interactions , 2011 .

[19]  A. Papachristos Murder by Structure: Dominance Relations and the Social Structure of Gang Homicide in Chicago , 2007, AJS; American journal of sociology.

[20]  Tsuyoshi Murata,et al.  {m , 1934, ACML.

[21]  George E. Tita,et al.  Gang rivalry dynamics via coupled point process networks , 2014 .

[22]  J. Kurths,et al.  Comparison of correlation analysis techniques for irregularly sampled time series , 2011 .

[23]  Thibaut Horel,et al.  Modeling Contagion Through Social Networks to Explain and Predict Gunshot Violence in Chicago, 2006 to 2014 , 2017, JAMA internal medicine.

[24]  Andrea L. Bertozzi,et al.  Crime topic modeling , 2017, Crime Science.

[26]  Michael I. Jordan,et al.  Graphical Models, Exponential Families, and Variational Inference , 2008, Found. Trends Mach. Learn..

[27]  Patrick Royston,et al.  Multiple imputation using chained equations: Issues and guidance for practice , 2011, Statistics in medicine.

[28]  Richard Rosenfeld,et al.  Facilitating Violence: A Comparison of Gang-Motivated, Gang-Affiliated, and Nongang Youth Homicides , 1999 .

[29]  Richard Wright,et al.  Street justice : retaliation in the criminal underworld , 2016 .

[30]  J. P. Shalloo Crime in the United States , 1974 .

[31]  Scott H. Decker,et al.  Validating Self-Nomination in Gang Research: Assessing Differences in Gang Embeddedness Across Non-, Current, and Former Gang Members , 2014 .

[32]  Andrea L. Bertozzi,et al.  Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing , 2015 .

[33]  Max Welling,et al.  Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes , 2013, ICLR.

[34]  A. Azzouz 2011 , 2020, City.

[35]  S. M. García,et al.  2014: , 2020, A Party for Lazarus.

[36]  Shana Hertz Hattis Crime in the United States , 2013 .