An Agent-Based Approach to Providing Tourism Planning Support

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a computer simulation approach that can be used to represent real-world systems and create planning scenarios to examine possible future outcomes of present-day decisions. This approach can be applied in tourism planning, where destinations are exposed to a variety of externalities, and must develop strategies to adapt to changing operational conditions. We describe the development of TourSim, an ABM of tourism dynamics set in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. We present an overview of the data sources and techniques used to inform agent behavior and the destination landscape, as well as consider aspects of system representation and validation and how these may affect the use of TourSim. TourSim is used to generate three scenarios of tourism dynamics; a base-case scenario, one that simulates the effect of a decrease in visitation from American markets as a result of economic crisis, and the use of advertising as a response to this lower level of visitation. These scenarios are used to evaluate ABM in comparison with other computer-based methods of modeling tourism, namely geographic information systems and system dynamics models.

[1]  Susanne Becken,et al.  Towards Sustainable Tourism Transport: An Analysis of Coach Tourism in New Zealand , 2005 .

[2]  Eric Bonabeau,et al.  Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[3]  Noam Shoval.  Sensing Human Society , 2007 .

[4]  P. Waddell.  UrbanSim: Modeling Urban Development for Land Use, Transportation, and Environmental Planning , 2002 .

[5]  Christophe Le Page,et al.  Agent based simulation of a small catchment water management in northern Thailand: Description of the CATCHSCAPE model , 2003 .

[6]  David Mcadam.  The Value and Scope of Geographical Information Systems in Tourism Management , 1999 .

[7]  Stephen J. Page,et al.  Exploring the spatial patterns of car-based tourist travel in Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park, Scotland , 2008 .

[8]  Josep Blat,et al.  Leveraging explicitly disclosed location information to understand tourist dynamics: a case study , 2008, J. Locat. Based Serv..

[9]  Nuno David,et al.  The Logic of the Method of Agent-Based Simulation in the Social Sciences: Empirical and Intentional Adequacy of Computer Programs , 2005, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[10]  Eric S. Fowler,et al.  Exploring Geographic Information Systems , 1997 .

[11]  B. Farrell,et al.  RECONCEPTUALIZING TOURISM , 2004 .

[12]  W.G.M. van der Knaap,et al.  GIS oriented analysis of tourist time-space patterns to support sustainable tourism development , 1999 .

[13]  Dan Jacobson,et al.  Public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS): challenges of implementation in Churchill, Manitoba , 2008 .

[14]  Edward J. Rykiel,et al.  Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation , 1996 .

[15]  Moira L. Zellner,et al.  Generating Policies for Sustainable Water Use in Complex Scenarios: An Integrated Land-Use and Water-Use Model of Monroe County, Michigan , 2007 .

[16]  H. Van Dyke Parunak,et al.  Managing Business Complexity: Discovering Strategic Solutions with Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation by Michael North and Charles Macal , 2007, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.

[17]  Moira L. Zellner,et al.  Embracing Complexity and Uncertainty: The Potential of Agent-Based Modeling for Environmental Planning and Policy , 2008 .

[18]  M. Janssen,et al.  Multi-Agent Systems for the Simulation of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: A Review , 2003 .

[19]  G. Nigel Gilbert,et al.  Simulation for the social scientist , 1999 .

[20]  G. Huse.  Individual‐based Modeling and Ecology , 2008 .

[21]  E. Ostrom,et al.  Empirically Based, Agent-based models , 2006 .

[22]  Noam Shoval,et al.  Tracking tourists in the digital age , 2007 .

[23]  Charles M. Macal,et al.  Managing Business Complexity: Discovering Strategic Solutions with Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation , 2007 .

[24]  Garry D. Peterson.  Political ecology and ecological resilience: , 2000 .

[25]  Ian D. Bishop,et al.  Management of Recreational Areas: GIS, Autonomous Agents, and Virtual Reality , 2000 .

[26]  Michael Batty,et al.  SERIES Key Challenges in Agent-Based Modelling for GeoSpatial Simulation , 2007 .

[27]  Thomas Berger,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Empirical based agent-based modeling Creating Agents and Landscapes for Multiagent Systems from Random Samples , 2006 .

[28]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up , 1996 .

[29]  R. Baggio.  Symptoms of complexity in a tourism system , 2007, physics/0701063.

[30]  Alberto RibesAbstract,et al.  Multi agent systems , 2019, Proceedings of the 2005 International Conference on Active Media Technology, 2005. (AMT 2005)..

[31]  Tim Bahaire,et al.  The Application of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in Sustainable Tourism Planning: A Review , 1999 .

[32]  Paul Schot,et al.  Bottlenecks Blocking Widespread Usage of Planning Support Systems , 2005 .

[33]  Peter A. Johnson,et al.  Automated web harvesting to collect and analyse user-generated content for tourism , 2012 .

[34]  Roslyn Russell,et al.  Movers and shakers: chaos makers in tourism development , 1999 .

[35]  Charles M. Macal,et al.  Managing Business Complexity: Discovering Strategic Solutions with Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation , 2007 .

[36]  Nicholas Mark Gotts,et al.  Comparison of empirical methods for building agent-based models in land use science , 2007 .

[37]  Robert J. Lempert,et al.  Making Computational Social Science Effective , 2002 .

[38]  Richard Stillman,et al.  Individual‐based Modeling and Ecology.Princeton Series in Theoretical and ComputationalBiology.ByVolker Grimmand, Steven F Railsback.Princeton (New Jersey): Princeton University Press.$99.50 (hardcover); $49.50 (paper). xvi + 428 p; ill.; index. ISBN: 0–691–09665–1 (hc); 0–691–09666–X (pb). 2005. , 2006 .

[39]  T. Nyerges.  PUBLIC PARTICIPATION GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS , 2008 .

[40]  Alison J. Heppenstall,et al.  Using Hybrid Agent-Based Systems to Model Spatially-Influenced Retail Markets , 2006, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..