Modelling pedestrian crossing behaviour in urban roads: a latent variable approach

As pedestrians are the most exposed and vulnerable road users to traffic accidents, urban planners frequently propose alternatives to improve their safety. However, some solutions, such as pedestrian bridges and crosswalks at signalized intersections, usually imply longer walking distances compared to the direct crossing alternative which, in its turn, involves a higher risk. In this article, a hybrid framework is proposed to analyse the pedestrians' choice on how to cross an urban road where three crossing options are available: crossing directly, crossing by using a pedestrian bridge or using a crosswalk at a signalized intersection. The decision process is modelled as a discrete choice model incorporating latent variables to consider perceptions and psychological factors, using stated preference data coming from a survey applied in Bogota, Colombia. RESULTS show that the latent variables security/safety and attractiveness of each crossing alternative are relevant to understand the pedestrian crossing behaviour. These latent variables are strongly determined by socioeconomic characteristics of the individual (age, gender, level of study) and conditioned by the circumstances of the trip (main mode of transport, walking or not with children). It was found that a longer walking distance to a pedestrian bridge or a signalized crosswalk increases the probability of direct crossing, having a more relevant effect in the case of the pedestrian bridge.