EXPERT PANEL METHOD OF FORECASTING LAND USE IMPACTS OF HIGHWAY PROJECTS

The validity of expert panel forecasts of land use impacts of highway projects in small urban areas was evaluated. A panel was assembled consisting of individuals with backgrounds in different aspects of land use and forecasting. This panel of experts was asked to predict the changes that have occurred over the past 20 years from a 1965 perspective. The panel received information on each of the two case study cities, as well as brief descriptions of the projects. The forecasting instrument consisted of a map for each city and a questionnaire to elicit evaluations of 31 features of community development. Each feature was rated as to whether an impact would occur, whether the impact was negative or positive, and the magnitude of the impact and its importance. On the map the panelists predicted the areas in which residential, retail, service, and industrial impact would occur. The first round of this study was conducted in person and the second round was completed by mail. After the results from the second round were tabulated, they were submitted to a smaller panel in each of the cities for evaluation with respect to accuracy and usefulness.