Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

[1]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China , 2010 .

[2]  D. Jacob,et al.  Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India , 2011 .

[3]  Y. Lian,et al.  Impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff in the Dongjiang River basin of China , 2010 .

[4]  Kung-Sik Chan,et al.  Quantifying the effect of land use land cover change on increasing discharge in the Upper Mississippi River , 2010 .

[5]  Lijuan Cao,et al.  Climate change effect on hydrological processes over the Yangtze River basin , 2011 .

[6]  Chaolin Gu,et al.  Climate change and urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta , 2011 .

[7]  Xiaolei Zhang,et al.  Influences of climate change and human activities on Tarim River runoffs in China over the past half century , 2012, Environmental Earth Sciences.

[8]  Nevelina I. Pachova,et al.  The Danube: a case study of sharing international waters , 2004 .

[9]  Q. Shao,et al.  Flood changes during the past 50 years in Wujiang River, South China , 2012 .

[10]  M. Saier,et al.  Climate Change, 2007 , 2007 .

[11]  Hui Tao,et al.  Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years: Human impact or climate change? , 2011 .

[12]  Yaning Chen,et al.  Global perspective on hydrology, water balance, and water resources management in arid basins , 2009 .

[13]  Zongxue Xu,et al.  Impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China , 2009 .

[14]  Dingzhi Peng,et al.  Simulating the impact of climate change on streamflow in the Tarim River basin by using a modified semi-distributed monthly water balance model. , 2009 .

[15]  Keith W. Hipel,et al.  Conflict analysis in environmental management , 2011 .

[16]  Martijn Gough.  Climate change , 2009, Canadian Medical Association Journal.

[17]  A. Kostianoy,et al.  Interannual variations of the discharge of Amu Darya and Syr Darya estimated from global atmospheric precipitation , 2004 .

[18]  Zhu Chenggang,et al.  Fifty-year climate change and its effect on annual runoff in the Tarim River Basin, China , 2009 .

[19]  Martina Flörke,et al.  Modelling the impact of Global Change on the hydrological system of the Aral Sea basin , 2011 .

[20]  R. Fantechi.  Effects Of Climate Change , 1993 .

[21]  Richard J. Williams,et al.  Assessment of current water pollution loads in Europe: estimation of gridded loads for use in global water quality models , 2012 .

[22]  Shunde Wang,et al.  The effects of human activities on oasis climate and hydrologic environment in the Aksu River Basin, Xinjiang, China , 2010 .

[23]  Yaning Chen,et al.  Impact of population growth and land-use change on water resources and ecosystems of the arid Tarim River Basin in Western China , 2006 .

[24]  Yaning Chen,et al.  Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Kaidu River Basin in arid region of northwest China , 2013, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[25]  Qiang Liu,et al.  Impacts of climate change/variability on the streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China , 2011 .

[26]  Guobin Fu,et al.  Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years , 2010 .

[27]  Yaning Chen,et al.  The Natural Vegetation Responses to the Groundwater Change Resulting from Ecological Water Conveyances to the Lower Tarim River , 2007, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[28]  Yaning Chen,et al.  Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the Last Fifty Years , 2008 .

[29]  R. Dikau,et al.  Land use and climatic impacts on the Rhine system (RheinLUCIFS): Quantifying sediment fluxes and human impact with available data , 2006 .

[30]  P. Ciais,et al.  The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China , 2010, Nature.

[31]  Kyoung-Woong Kim,et al.  The relationship of climatic and hydrological parameters to surface water quality in the lower Mekong River. , 2008, Environment international.

[32]  E. Mostert.  International co-operation on Rhine water quality 1945–2008: An example to follow? , 2009 .

[33]  Changchun Xu,et al.  Effects of ecological water conveyance on groundwater dynamics and riparian vegetation in the lower reaches of Tarim River, China , 2009 .

[34]  Joanna Burger,et al.  Environmental management: integrating ecological evaluation, remediation, restoration, natural resource damage assessment and long-term stewardship on contaminated lands. , 2008, The Science of the total environment.

[35]  Yaning Chen,et al.  Effect of the ecological water conveyance project on environment in the Lower Tarim River, Xinjiang, China , 2009, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[36]  Hailiang Xu,et al.  Impacts of climate change on headstream runoff in the Tarim River Basin , 2010 .

[37]  K. Hiscock,et al.  The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain , 2008 .

[38]  Tiyip Tashpolat,et al.  Long‐term change of seasonal snow cover and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim River basin, northwestern China , 2009 .

[39]  S. Yue,et al.  Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series , 2002 .

[40]  Júlia Seixas,et al.  Vulnerability of water resources, vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds , 2008 .

[41]  Joseph H. Wlosinski,et al.  Trends in flood stages: Contrasting results from the Mississippi and Rhine River systems , 2006 .

[42]  T. Jiang,et al.  Temporal and spatial trends of precipitation and river flow in the Yangtze River Basin, 1961-2000 , 2007 .

[43]  Yaonan Zhang,et al.  Response of runoff in the source region of the Yellow River to climate warming , 2010 .

[44]  V. Tikunov,et al.  How to measure sustainable development: A view from Russia , 2006 .

[45]  Chen Yaning,et al.  Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin , 2005 .

[46]  Zongxue Xu,et al.  Response of streamflow to climate change in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin , 2009 .