The paper presents a stochastic model for the interaction between the spread of untenable conditions and occupant egress. Safety is measured by the expected number of deaths. The building is represented by a network for modelling fire spread and by another network for modelling occupant egress. A major innovation is the introduction of the concept of discrete hazard function. It allows the interaction between the various factors involved in the spread of untenable conditions and occupant egress to be taken into account at the time of their occurrence during simulations. Two small-scale examples are worked out in detail and flowcharts for full-fledged programs are given.
[1]
R. B. Williamson,et al.
Modeling of fire spread through probabilistic networks
,
1985
.
[2]
William Feller,et al.
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications
,
1951
.
[3]
Andrew H. Buchanan,et al.
A probabilistic model of fire spread with time effects
,
1994
.
[4]
P. A. Thompson,et al.
Simulex 3.0: Modelling Evacuation In Multi-storey Buildings
,
1997
.
[5]
Robin J. Wilson.
Introduction to Graph Theory
,
1974
.
[6]
P. Brennan,et al.
Timing Human Response In Real Fires
,
1997
.