Depressed trajectory SLBMs: A technical evaluation and arms control possibilities

SLBMs (sea-launched ballistic missiles) flown on depressed trajectories would have short flight times, comparable to escape times of bombers and launch times of ICBMs, thus raising the possibility of short time-of-flight (STOF) nuclear attacks. We assess the depressed trajectory (DT) capability of existing SLBMs by calculating the flight times, atmospheric loading on the booster, reentry heating on the reentry vehicle (RV), and degradation of accuracy for a DT SLBM. We find that current US and CIS SLBMs flown on depressed trajectories would have the capability to attack bomber bases at ranges of up to about 2,000 kilometers, and possibly at ranges up to 3,000 kilometers. To target bombers based furthest inland, a new high-velocity booster might be required, and attacking hardened targets would require a maneuvering RV (MaRV). We conclude that DT capabilities could be effectively controlled by the combination of an apogee restriction on the flight testing of existing SLBMs and bans on the development of high-velocity boosters and MaRVs, and that, in view of their inherent STOF capabilities, deep cuts in the number of SLBMs or their elimination might be desirable for an optimal minimum-deterrent force structure.