A Review of Estimate at Completion Research

Abstract The cancellation of the Navy's A-12 program has increased interest in forecasting the completed cost of a defense contract, termed “Estimate at Completion” (EAC). In addition, popular software packages and electronic spreadsheets allow users to quickly compute a range of EACS. Analysts and managers are left with the task of deciding which EAC or range of EACs is most accurate. Although there have been many studies that either compare existing EAC formulas and models, or propose new ones, few have been published in journals or magazines and there is little guidance regarding which formula or model is most accurate. This paper reviews 25 studies which either propose or compare EAC formulas and models. Each study is briefly described. Tables which summarize research results are provided. Results show that no one formula or model is always best. Additional research with regression-based models is needed.