Production planning problem with pricing under random yield: CVaR criterion

In this paper, we address a basic production planning problem with price dependent demand and stochastic yield of production. We use price and target quantity as decision variables to lower the risk of low yield. The value of risk control becomes more important especially for products with short life cycle. This is because, the profit implications of low yield might be unbearable in the short run. We apply Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) to model the risk. CVaR measure is a coherent risk measure and thereby having nice conceptual and mathematical underpinnings. It is also widely used in practice. We consider the problem under general demand function and general distribution function of yield and find sufficient conditions under which the problem has a unique local maximum. We also both analytically and numerically analyze the impact of parameter change on the optimal solution. Among our results, we analytically show that with increasing risk aversion, the optimal price increases. This relation is opposite to that of in Newsvendor problem where the uncertainty lies in demand side.

[1]  R. Rockafellar,et al.  Conditional Value-at-Risk for General Loss Distributions , 2001 .

[2]  Tsan-Ming Choi,et al.  Optimal Return Service Charging Policy for a Fashion Mass Customization Program , 2013 .

[3]  M. Teboulle,et al.  AN OLD‐NEW CONCEPT OF CONVEX RISK MEASURES: THE OPTIMIZED CERTAINTY EQUIVALENT , 2007 .

[4]  Tsan-Ming Choi,et al.  Mean–Variance Analysis for the Newsvendor Problem , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans.

[5]  Zhe George Zhang,et al.  Technical Note - A Risk-Averse Newsvendor Model Under the CVaR Criterion , 2009, Oper. Res..

[6]  R. Rockafellar,et al.  Generalized Deviations in Risk Analysis , 2004 .

[7]  M. Machina Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved , 1987 .

[8]  Tsan-Ming Choi,et al.  Supply chain coordination with risk sensitive retailer under target sales rebate , 2011, Autom..

[9]  Maqbool Dada,et al.  A Newsvendor's Procurement Problem when Suppliers Are Unreliable , 2007, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag..

[10]  Yimin Wang,et al.  On the Value of Mix Flexibility and Dual Sourcing in Unreliable Newsvendor Networks , 2005, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag..

[11]  Samar K. Mukhopadhyay,et al.  Supply chain coordination under uncertainty , 2011 .

[12]  Qing Li,et al.  Joint Inventory Replenishment and Pricing Control for Systems with Uncertain Yield and Demand , 2006, Oper. Res..

[13]  Ye Lu,et al.  The Effect of Supply Uncertainty in Price-Setting Newsvendor Models , 2013, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[14]  Yao Zhao,et al.  A Multiproduct Risk-Averse Newsvendor with Law-Invariant Coherent Measures of Risk , 2011, Oper. Res..

[15]  Ou Tang,et al.  Dynamic pricing in the newsvendor problem with yield risks , 2012 .

[16]  K. Arrow Essays in the theory of risk-bearing , 1958 .

[17]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk — Source link , 2007 .

[18]  Alexander Schied,et al.  Convex measures of risk and trading constraints , 2002, Finance Stochastics.

[19]  Hau L. Lee,et al.  Lot Sizing with Random Yields: A Review , 1995, Oper. Res..

[20]  Jun-ya Gotoh,et al.  Newsvendor solutions via conditional value-at-risk minimization , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[21]  Ying Wei,et al.  Mean-variance analysis of supply chains under wholesale pricing and profit sharing schemes , 2010, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[22]  Ismail Serdar Bakal,et al.  Effects of Random Yield in Remanufacturing with Price‐Sensitive Supply and Demand , 2006 .

[23]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect Theory : An Analysis of Decision under Risk Author ( s ) : , 2007 .

[24]  Nallan C. Suresh,et al.  Production , Manufacturing and Logistics Would a risk-averse newsvendor order less at a higher selling price ? , 2009 .

[25]  D. Bertsimas,et al.  Shortfall as a risk measure: properties, optimization and applications , 2004 .

[26]  Marco Frittelli,et al.  Dynamic convex risk measures , 2004 .

[27]  David Simchi-Levi,et al.  Supply Chain Coordination and Influenza Vaccination , 2008, Oper. Res..

[28]  Philippe Artzner,et al.  Coherent Measures of Risk , 1999 .

[29]  R. Rockafellar,et al.  Optimization of conditional value-at risk , 2000 .

[30]  G. P. Szegö,et al.  Risk measures for the 21st century , 2004 .

[31]  Burak Kazaz,et al.  The Impact of Yield-Dependent Trading Costs on Pricing and Production Planning Under Supply Uncertainty , 2011, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag..

[32]  Sarang Deo,et al.  Consumption Externality and Yield Uncertainty in the Influenza Vaccine Supply Chain: Interventions in Demand and Supply Sides , 2012, Manag. Sci..

[33]  Baruch Keren,et al.  Production , Manufacturing and Logistics A benchmark solution for the risk-averse newsvendor problem , 2006 .

[34]  Christopher S. Tang,et al.  Responsive pricing under supply uncertainty , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[35]  Philippe Artzner,et al.  COHERENT MULTIPERIOD RISK MEASUREMENT , 2002 .

[36]  Minghui Xu A price-setting newsvendor model under CVaR decision criterion with emergency procurement , 2010 .

[37]  Brian Tomlin,et al.  On the Value of Mitigation and Contingency Strategies for Managing Supply Chain Disruption Risks , 2006, Manag. Sci..

[38]  Soo-Haeng Cho,et al.  Advance Selling in a Supply Chain Under Uncertain Supply and Demand , 2013, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag..

[39]  Sarang Deo,et al.  Cournot Competition Under Yield Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Market , 2009, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag..

[40]  T. Choi,et al.  Mean-downside-risk and mean-variance newsvendor models: Implications for sustainable fashion retailing , 2012 .

[41]  Giacomo Scandolo,et al.  Conditional and dynamic convex risk measures , 2005, Finance Stochastics.

[42]  Brian Tomlin,et al.  Impact of Supply Learning When Suppliers Are Unreliable , 2009, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag..

[43]  Tsan-Ming Choi,et al.  Optimal Pricing and Stocking Decisions for Newsvendor Problem With Value-at-Risk Consideration , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans.