Towards a robust traffic timetable for the Swedish Southern Mainline

We identify the on-time performance as a key to evaluate a railway timetable’s robustness to disturbances and evaluate the on-time performance for two single services on the Swedish Southern Mainline for the autumn period 2011. We analyse the punctuality by studying how the performance develops en route. Typically the time spent in the stations is underestimated, which partly is compensated for by time margins along the line, giving rise to a sawtooth formed delay muster with an increasing trend. The standard deviation in the delay reports seems to be a good indicator for the precision in the traffic. In this material it is almost linearly increasing with a good minute per hour scheduled running time. Two attempts are made to change the timetable for a better performance. By using socio-economic values a customer-oriented description of the current timetable is calculated as a trade-off between high punctuality and short travel time. This timetable does not affect any other traffic. Minor effects to other traffic would be the result if the existing margins are re-distributed to better match the demand en route in some sense. As long as no more time supplement is added, we will, however, not improve on the punctuality to the final destination. For future research is left, how the decrease in precision can be accounted for already in the timetable construction.