Petrochemicals inch toward recovery: Following a low in output this summer, basic olefins and aromatics are starting the long road back to financial health

U.S. petrochemicals have been knocked flat financially and generally are operating in the red. It is long past time for the recovery once hoped for in the second half of 1982. Some industry people are now pinning their hopes on the second half of 1983, but others aren't looking for full recovery until 1984 or respectable profitability until 1985. Currently, production rates of the five major petrochemicals treated in the following pages—ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, and p -xylene—have inched up from the summer trough. But output at a combined 51.8 billion lb for 1982 remains fully 20% below 1979 peak levels and in some cases is still below levels of a year ago, when the production slump was in full swing. A production upturn in 1983 might not exceed 10% and could be as low as 5%. That would leave combined volume of the five well below 1981's 60.0 billion lb, to say nothing of 1979. ...