THE VARIABLE SKY OF DEEP SYNOPTIC SURVEYS

The discovery of variable and transient sources is an essential product of synoptic surveys. The alert stream will require filtering for personalized criteria -- a process managed by a functionality commonly described as a Broker. In order to understand quantitatively the magnitude of the alert generation and Broker tasks, we have undertaken an analysis of the most numerous types of variable targets in the sky -- Galactic stars, QSOs, AGNs and asteroids. It is found that LSST will be capable of discovering ~10^5 high latitude |b| > 20 deg) variable stars per night at the beginning of the survey. (The corresponding number for |b| 10^5 per night, and if orbital determination has a 50% success rate per epoch, will drop below 1000/night within 2 years.

[1]  M. Cropper,et al.  Gaia astrometric, photometric, and radial-velocity performance assessment methodologies to be used by the industrial system-level teams , 2022 .

[2]  E. al.,et al.  The Faint Sky Variability Survey - I. Goals and data reduction process , 2002, astro-ph/0210416.

[3]  D. Ciardi,et al.  Stellar Variability in a Survey of Field Stars , 2002 .

[4]  Eduardo Serrano,et al.  LSST: From Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products , 2008, The Astrophysical Journal.

[5]  Stellar Multiplicity and the Initial Mass Function: Most Stars Are Single , 2006, astro-ph/0601375.

[6]  Walter A. Siegmund,et al.  The 2.5 m Telescope of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey , 2006, astro-ph/0602326.

[7]  G. V. Yakunina,et al.  SOLAR FLARE DYNAMICS OBTAINED BY X-RAY OBSERVATIONS , 2003 .

[8]  Stephen R. Kane,et al.  CHARACTERIZING THE VARIABILITY OF STARS WITH EARLY-RELEASE KEPLER DATA , 2010, 1009.1840.

[9]  S. Howell,et al.  AN EXPLORATION OF THE PARADIGM FOR THE 2¨3 HOUR PERIOD GAP IN CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES , 2000, astro-ph/0005435.

[10]  V. Sarajedini,et al.  A multiwavelength survey of AGN in massive clusters: AGN detection and cluster AGN fraction , 2012, 1207.4830.

[11]  Steve Bruce Howell,et al.  On the Existence of Low-Luminosity Cataclysmic Variables Beyond the Orbital Period Minimum , 1997 .

[12]  John L. Tonry,et al.  A search for variable stars and planetary occultations in NGC 2301. I. Techniques , 2005 .

[13]  D. A. Caldwell,et al.  SELECTION, PRIORITIZATION, AND CHARACTERISTICS OF KEPLER TARGET STARS , 2010, 1001.0349.

[14]  G. Richards,et al.  An Observational Determination of the Bolometric Quasar Luminosity Function , 2006, astro-ph/0605678.

[15]  W. Wolfe,et al.  The Infrared Handbook , 1985 .

[16]  Nathaniel R. Butler,et al.  CONSTRUCTION OF A CALIBRATED PROBABILISTIC CLASSIFICATION CATALOG: APPLICATION TO 50k VARIABLE SOURCES IN THE ALL-SKY AUTOMATED SURVEY , 2012, 1204.4180.

[17]  A. Cox,et al.  Allen's astrophysical quantities , 2000 .

[18]  Ž. Ivezić,et al.  A DESCRIPTION OF QUASAR VARIABILITY MEASURED USING REPEATED SDSS AND POSS IMAGING , 2011, 1112.0679.

[19]  K. Zebrun,et al.  Difference Image Analysis of the OGLE-II Bulge Data. III. Catalog of 200,000 Candidate Variable Stars , 2002 .

[20]  J. Cannizzo,et al.  SPECTROSCOPY OF NEW AND POORLY KNOWN CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES IN THE KEPLER FIELD , 2013, 1302.3975.

[21]  W. Stahel,et al.  Log-normal Distributions across the Sciences: Keys and Clues , 2001 .

[22]  E. O. Ofek,et al.  Automating Discovery and Classification of Transients and Variable Stars in the Synoptic Survey Era , 2011, 1106.5491.

[23]  C. Fabricius,et al.  Gaia broad band photometry , 2010, 1008.0815.

[24]  A. Robin,et al.  A synthetic view on structure and evolution of the Milky Way , 2003 .

[25]  William F. Welsh,et al.  KEPLER ECLIPSING BINARY STARS. II. 2165 ECLIPSING BINARIES IN THE SECOND DATA RELEASE , 2011, 1103.1659.

[26]  A. Myers,et al.  Luminosity function from dedicated SDSS-III and MMT data of quasars in 0.7 < z < 4.0 selected with a new approach , 2012, 1209.3968.

[27]  Ž. Ivezić,et al.  LSST Exposure Time Calculator , 2007 .

[28]  M. G. Lattanzi,et al.  GAIA: Composition, formation and evolution of the Galaxy , 2001, astro-ph/0101235.

[29]  M. E. Everett,et al.  Color and Variability Characteristics of Point Sources in the Faint Sky Variability Survey , 2006, astro-ph/0604449.

[30]  E. Bulbul,et al.  A NEW METHOD TO CONSTRAIN SUPERNOVA FRACTIONS USING X-RAY OBSERVATIONS OF CLUSTERS OF GALAXIES , 2012, 1205.2706.

[31]  A. J. Drake,et al.  FIRST RESULTS FROM THE CATALINA REAL-TIME TRANSIENT SURVEY , 2008, 0809.1394.

[32]  E. Gaidos,et al.  THEY MIGHT BE GIANTS: LUMINOSITY CLASS, PLANET OCCURRENCE, AND PLANET–METALLICITY RELATION OF THE COOLEST KEPLER TARGET STARS , 2012, 1202.5394.

[33]  J. Bochanski,et al.  M DWARFS IN SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY STRIPE 82: PHOTOMETRIC LIGHT CURVES AND FLARE RATE ANALYSIS , 2009, 0906.2030.

[34]  L. Walkowicz,et al.  WHITE-LIGHT FLARES ON COOL STARS IN THE KEPLER QUARTER 1 DATA , 2010, 1008.0853.