Hybrid classification and regression models via particle swarm optimization auto associative neural network based nonlinear PCA

For solving classification and regression problems, we propose a hybrid system consisting of two phases which work in tandem. In the first phase, particle swarm optimization is employed to train a 3-layered auto associative neural network henceforth called PSOAANN. In this phase, dimensionality reduction takes place in hidden layer, where the hidden nodes should be less than the input nodes. The outputs from the hidden nodes are then treated as nonlinear principal components NLPC. They are fed to the second phase where several classifiers and regression methods are invoked. The second phase includes techniques viz., threshold accepting logistic regression TALR, probabilistic neural network PNN, group method of data handling GMDH, support vector machine SVM and genetic programming GP for classification problems. For regression problems, general regression neural network GRNN is used in place of PNN. In addition, support vector machine SVM, Genetic Programming GP, GMDH are also employed, as they are versatile. The efficiency of the hybrid is analyzed on five banking datasets namely Spanish banks, Turkish banks, US banks and UK banks and UK credit dataset and five regression datasets viz., Bodyfat, Forestfires, AutoMPG, Boston Housing and Pollution. All the datasets are analyzed using 10 fold cross validation 10 FCV. It turns out that the proposed hybrid yielded higher accuracies across classification and regression problems.

[1]  K. Dahal,et al.  Intelligent Phishing Website Detection System using Fuzzy Techniques , 2008, 2008 3rd International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies: From Theory to Applications.

[2]  Chun-Ling Chuang,et al.  Application of hybrid case-based reasoning for enhanced performance in bankruptcy prediction , 2013, Inf. Sci..

[3]  Donald F. Specht,et al.  Probabilistic neural networks , 1990, Neural Networks.

[4]  Amir F. Atiya,et al.  Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: A survey and new results , 2001, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[5]  Hiok Chai Quek,et al.  GenSo-EWS: a novel neural-fuzzy based early warning system for predicting bank failures , 2004, Neural Networks.

[6]  Sureswaran Ramadass,et al.  Evolving Fuzzy Neural Network for Phishing Emails Detection , 2012 .

[7]  Edward I. Altman,et al.  FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY , 1968 .

[8]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Bankruptcy Prediction in Banks by Principal Component Analysis Threshold Accepting trained Wavelet Neural Network Hybrid , 2022 .

[9]  John C. Mitchell,et al.  Client-Side Defense Against Web-Based Identity Theft , 2004, NDSS.

[10]  Ingoo Han,et al.  Hybrid neural network models for bankruptcy predictions , 1996, Decis. Support Syst..

[11]  Kyung-shik Shin,et al.  An application of support vector machines in bankruptcy prediction model , 2005, Expert Syst. Appl..

[12]  David E. Goldberg,et al.  Genetic Algorithms in Search Optimization and Machine Learning , 1988 .

[13]  James Kennedy,et al.  Particle swarm optimization , 2002, Proceedings of ICNN'95 - International Conference on Neural Networks.

[14]  Ramesh Sharda,et al.  A neural network model for bankruptcy prediction , 1990, 1990 IJCNN International Joint Conference on Neural Networks.

[15]  Donald F. Specht,et al.  A general regression neural network , 1991, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[16]  Jonathan N. Crook,et al.  Credit Scoring and Its Applications , 2002, SIAM monographs on mathematical modeling and computation.

[17]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Hybrid classifier based on particle swarm optimization trained auto associative neural networks as non-linear principal component analyzer: Application to banking , 2012, 2012 12th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications (ISDA).

[18]  Andrew H. Sung,et al.  Detection of Phishing Attacks: A Machine Learning Approach , 2008, Soft Computing Applications in Industry.

[19]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Detecting phishing e-mails using text and data mining , 2012, 2012 IEEE International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Computing Research.

[20]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Threshold accepting trained principal component neural network and feature subset selection: Application to bankruptcy prediction in banks , 2008, Appl. Soft Comput..

[21]  Vladimir N. Vapnik,et al.  The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory , 2000, Statistics for Engineering and Information Science.

[22]  Sangjae Lee,et al.  A multi-industry bankruptcy prediction model using back-propagation neural network and multivariate discriminant analysis , 2013, Expert Syst. Appl..

[23]  Sadia Afroz,et al.  PhishZoo : An Automated Web Phishing Detection Approach Based on Profiling and Fuzzy Matching , 2009 .

[24]  Ignacio Olmeda,et al.  Hybrid Classifiers for Financial Multicriteria Decision Making: The Case of Bankruptcy Prediction , 1997 .

[25]  Serpil Canbas,et al.  Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case , 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[26]  Kar Yan Tam,et al.  Neural network models and the prediction of bank bankruptcy , 1991 .

[27]  Timothy B. Bell,et al.  Neural nets or the logit model? A comparison of each model’s ability to predict commercial bank failures , 1997 .

[28]  Jeffrey A. Clark,et al.  Off-site monitoring systems for predicting bank underperformance: a comparison of neural networks, discriminant analysis, and professional human judgment , 2001, Intell. Syst. Account. Finance Manag..

[29]  Suku Nair,et al.  A comparison of machine learning techniques for phishing detection , 2007, eCrime '07.

[30]  Ramesh Sharda,et al.  Bankruptcy prediction using neural networks , 1994, Decis. Support Syst..

[31]  Ligang Zhou,et al.  Performance of corporate bankruptcy prediction models on imbalanced dataset: The effect of sampling methods , 2013, Knowl. Based Syst..

[32]  Melody Y. Kiang,et al.  Predicting Bank Failures: A neural network approach , 1990, Appl. Artif. Intell..

[33]  P. Ravikumar,et al.  Bankruptcy Prediction in Banks by an Ensemble Classifier , 2006, 2006 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Technology.

[34]  Nello Cristianini,et al.  An Introduction to Support Vector Machines and Other Kernel-based Learning Methods , 2000 .

[35]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Differential evolution trained kernel principal component WNN and kernel binary quantile regression: Application to banking , 2013, Knowl. Based Syst..

[36]  M. S. Vijaya,et al.  Efficient prediction of phishing websites using supervised learning algorithms , 2012 .

[37]  Rebel A. Cole,et al.  A CAMEL Rating's Shelf Life , 1995 .

[38]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[39]  D. E. Goldberg,et al.  Genetic Algorithm in Search , 1989 .

[40]  Fergus Toolan,et al.  Phishing detection using classifier ensembles , 2009, 2009 eCrime Researchers Summit.

[41]  Ingoo Han,et al.  A case-based reasoning with the feature weights derived by analytic hierarchy process for bankruptcy prediction , 2002, Expert Syst. Appl..

[42]  Manuel Landajo,et al.  Bankruptcy prediction models based on multinorm analysis: An alternative to accounting ratios , 2012, Knowl. Based Syst..

[43]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Support vector machine and wavelet neural network hybrid: application to bankruptcy prediction in banks , 2010, Int. J. Data Min. Model. Manag..

[44]  Kin Keung Lai,et al.  Least squares support vector machines ensemble models for credit scoring , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[45]  M.A.H. Farquad,et al.  Credit Scoring Using PCA-SVM Hybrid Model , 2011 .

[46]  E. Mine Cinar,et al.  Neural Networks: A New Tool for Predicting Thrift Failures , 1992 .

[47]  Riccardo Poli,et al.  A Field Guide to Genetic Programming , 2008 .

[48]  Xi Chen,et al.  Assessing the severity of phishing attacks: A hybrid data mining approach , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[49]  Wei-Yang Lin,et al.  Machine Learning in Financial Crisis Prediction: A Survey , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C (Applications and Reviews).

[50]  Stanley J. Farlow,et al.  Self-Organizing Methods in Modeling: Gmdh Type Algorithms , 1984 .

[51]  Gordon V. Karels,et al.  Multivariate Normality and Forecasting of Business Bankruptcy , 1987 .

[52]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Non-linear principal component analysis-based hybrid classifiers: an application to bankruptcy prediction in banks , 2010, Int. J. Inf. Decis. Sci..

[53]  Chulwoo Jeong,et al.  A tuning method for the architecture of neural network models incorporating GAM and GA as applied to bankruptcy prediction , 2012, Expert Syst. Appl..

[54]  John R. Koza,et al.  Genetic programming - on the programming of computers by means of natural selection , 1993, Complex adaptive systems.

[55]  Mark J Funt Financial ratios. , 2009, Pennsylvania dental journal.

[56]  G. C. McDonald,et al.  Instabilities of Regression Estimates Relating Air Pollution to Mortality , 1973 .

[57]  Thomas E. McKee Developing a bankruptcy prediction model via rough sets theory , 2000 .

[58]  David L. Olson,et al.  Comparative analysis of data mining methods for bankruptcy prediction , 2012, Decis. Support Syst..

[59]  Amir Herzberg,et al.  TrustBar: Protecting (even Naïve) Web Users from Spoofing and Phishing Attacks , 2004 .

[60]  James A. Ohlson FINANCIAL RATIOS AND THE PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF BANKRUPTCY , 1980 .

[61]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  A Semi-Online Training Algorithm for the Radial Basis Function Neural Networks: Applications to Bankruptcy Prediction in Banks , 2008 .

[62]  M. Beynon,et al.  Variable precision rough set theory and data discretisation: an application to corporate failure prediction , 2001 .

[63]  Carlos Serrano-Cinca,et al.  Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis for bankruptcy prediction , 2013, Decis. Support Syst..

[64]  P. Cortez,et al.  A data mining approach to predict forest fires using meteorological data , 2007 .

[65]  Vadlamani Ravi,et al.  Bankruptcy Prediction in Banks by Fuzzy Rule Based Classifier , 2007, 2006 1st International Conference on Digital Information Management.

[66]  David E. Booth,et al.  The use of fuzzy clustering algorithm and self-organizing neural networks for identifying potentially failing banks: an experimental study , 2000 .

[67]  Fadi A. Thabtah,et al.  Intelligent phishing detection system for e-banking using fuzzy data mining , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[68]  Bernardete Ribeiro,et al.  Clustering and visualization of bankruptcy trajectory using self-organizing map , 2013, Expert Syst. Appl..