论文信息 - Closure to the Discussion of “Prediction Intervals for Short-Term Wind Farm Generation Forecasts” and “Combined Nonparametric Prediction Intervals for Wind Power Generation” and the Discussion of “Combined Nonparametric Prediction Intervals for Wind Power Generation”

Closure to the Discussion of “Prediction Intervals for Short-Term Wind Farm Generation Forecasts” and “Combined Nonparametric Prediction Intervals for Wind Power Generation” and the Discussion of “Combined Nonparametric Prediction Intervals for Wind Power Generation”

In the above discussions [1], [2], some concerns have been raised related to the suitability of coverage-width-criterion (CWC) for comprehensive evaluation of the quality of prediction intervals (PIs) generated using neural networks (NNs). Effects of existing CWC measure on the quality of PIs reported in [3] and [4] are analyzed in this short note. Alternative methods for optimal construction and comprehensive evaluation of PIs are also discussed.

Saeid Nahavandi | Abbas Khosravi

[1] Abbas Khosravi,et al. Short-Term Load and Wind Power Forecasting Using Neural Network-Based Prediction Intervals , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems.

[2] Leonard A. Smith,et al. Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper , 2007 .

[3] S. Nahavandi,et al. Prediction Intervals for Short-Term Wind Farm Power Generation Forecasts , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[4] Saeid Nahavandi,et al. Combined Nonparametric Prediction Intervals for Wind Power Generation , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[5] Amir F. Atiya,et al. Comprehensive Review of Neural Network-Based Prediction Intervals and New Advances , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks.

[6] Kit Po Wong,et al. Discussion of “Combined Nonparametric Prediction Intervals for Wind Power Generation” , 2014 .

[7] Amir F. Atiya,et al. Lower Upper Bound Estimation Method for Construction of Neural Network-Based Prediction Intervals , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks.

[8] Pierre Pinson,et al. Discussion of “Prediction Intervals for Short-Term Wind Farm Generation Forecasts” and “Combined Nonparametric Prediction Intervals for Wind Power Generation” , 2014 .