Tree mortality from an exceptional drought spanning mesic to semiarid ecoregions.

Significant areas of the southern USA periodically experience intense drought that can lead to episodic tree mortality events. Because drought tolerance varies among species and size of trees, such events can alter the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystem in ways that are difficult to detect with local data sets or solely with remote-sensing platforms. We investigated a widespread tree mortality event that resulted from the worst 1-year drought on record for the state of Texas, USA. The drought affected ecoregions spanning mesic to semiarid climate zones and provided a unique opportunity to test hypotheses related to how trees of varying genus and size were affected. The study was based on an extensive set of 599 distributed plots, each 0.16 ha, surveyed in the summer following the drought. In each plot, dead trees larger than 12.7 cm in diameter were counted, sized, and identified to the genus level. Estimates of total mortality were obtained for each of 10 regions using a combination of design-based estimators and calibrated remote sensing using MODIS 1-yr change in normalized difference vegetation index products developed by the U.S. Forest Service. As compared with most of the publicized extreme die-off events, this study documents relatively low rates of mortality occurring over a very large area. However, statewide, regional tree mortality was massive, with an estimated 6.2% of the live trees perishing, nearly nine times greater than normal annual mortality. Dead tree diameters averaged larger than the live trees for most ecoregions, and this trend was most pronounced in the wetter climate zones, suggesting a potential re-ordering of species dominance and downward trend in tree size that was specific to climatic regions. The net effect on carbon storage was estimated to be a redistribution of 24-30 Tg C from the live tree to dead tree carbon pool. The dead tree survey documented drought mortality in more than 29 genera across all regions, and surprisingly, drought resistant and sensitive species fared similarly in some regions. Both angiosperms and gymnosperms were affected. These results highlight that drought-driven mortality alters forest structure differently across climatic regions and genera.

[1]  B. Sturtevant,et al.  Modeling Forest Mortality Caused by Drought Stress: Implications for Climate Change , 2012, Ecosystems.

[2]  N. Coops,et al.  Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America , 2011 .

[3]  M. G. Ryan Tree responses to drought. , 2011, Tree physiology.

[4]  F. Woodward,et al.  Vegetation dynamics – simulating responses to climatic change , 2004, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[5]  M. Tjoelker,et al.  Climate warming and precipitation redistribution modify tree–grass interactions and tree species establishment in a warm‐temperate savanna , 2013, Global change biology.

[6]  J. Kane,et al.  Drought-induced mortality of a foundation species (Juniperus monosperma) promotes positive afterlife effects in understory vegetation , 2011, Plant Ecology.

[7]  C. Peng,et al.  Toward dynamic global vegetation models for simulating vegetation–climate interactions and feedbacks: recent developments, limitations, and future challenges , 2010 .

[8]  P. Cox,et al.  Texas Trees: A Friendly Guide , 1988 .

[9]  M. G. Ryan,et al.  Improving our knowledge of drought-induced forest mortality through experiments, observations, and modeling , 2013 .

[10]  G. Sun,et al.  The rise of the mediocre forest: why chronically stressed trees may better survive extreme episodic climate variability , 2014, New Forests.

[11]  O. V. Auken Shrub Invasions of North American Semiarid Grasslands , 2000 .

[12]  G. Bonan Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests , 2008, Science.

[13]  A. Lister,et al.  A nearest-neighbor imputation approach to mapping tree species over large areas using forest inventory plots and moderate resolution raster data , 2012 .

[14]  Robert D. Tortora,et al.  Sampling: Design and Analysis , 2000 .

[15]  Pete Smith,et al.  Integrating plant–soil interactions into global carbon cycle models , 2009 .

[16]  K. Hirsch,et al.  Direct carbon emissions from Canadian forest fires, 1959-1999 , 2001 .

[17]  Robert J. Pabst,et al.  Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size , 2014, Nature.

[18]  N. McDowell,et al.  Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought? , 2008, The New phytologist.

[19]  T. Swetnam,et al.  Mesoscale Disturbance and Ecological Response to Decadal Climatic Variability in the American Southwest , 1998 .

[20]  W. Bauerle,et al.  Drought impact on forest growth and mortality in the southeast USA: an analysis using Forest Health and Monitoring data. , 2009, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[21]  Cho-ying Huang,et al.  Extreme climatic event‐triggered overstorey vegetation loss increases understorey solar input regionally: primary and secondary ecological implications , 2011 .

[22]  Robert B Jackson,et al.  Hydraulic traits are influenced by phylogenetic history in the drought-resistant, invasive genus Juniperus (Cupressaceae). , 2008, American journal of botany.

[23]  William A. Bechtold,et al.  The enhanced forest inventory and analysis program - national sampling design and estimation procedures , 2005 .

[24]  C. Field,et al.  Linking definitions, mechanisms, and modeling of drought-induced tree death. , 2012, Trends in plant science.

[25]  D. Breshears,et al.  When Ecosystem Services Crash: Preparing for Big, Fast, Patchy Climate Change , 2011, AMBIO.

[26]  W. Hargrove,et al.  Toward a national early warning system for forest disturbances using remotely sensed canopy phenology , 2009 .

[27]  D. Nepstad,et al.  Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an Amazon forest. , 2007, Ecology.

[28]  D. Lindenmayer,et al.  Global Decline in Large Old Trees , 2012, Science.

[29]  A. Nardini,et al.  Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought , 2012, Nature.

[30]  Andrea Vannini,et al.  Interactive effects of drought and pathogens in forest trees , 2006 .

[31]  M. G. Ryan,et al.  Feature: Improving our knowledge of drought-induced forest mortality through experiments, observations, and modeling. , 2013, The New phytologist.

[32]  M. G. Ryan,et al.  A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States. , 2011, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[33]  N. McDowell,et al.  A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests , 2010 .

[34]  F. Woodward,et al.  Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations. , 2010, The New phytologist.

[35]  D. Peterson,et al.  Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: Ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management , 2011 .

[36]  Mark H. Hansen,et al.  Investigation into calculating tree biomass and carbon in the FIADB using a biomass expansion factor approach , 2009 .

[37]  K. Price,et al.  Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[38]  Tongli Wang,et al.  Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[39]  Marianne E. Porter,et al.  Differential tree mortality in response to severe drought: evidence for long‐term vegetation shifts , 2005 .

[40]  Tao Zhang,et al.  Anatomy of an Extreme Event , 2013 .