Bayesian Approach for Probabilistic Site Characterization Using Cone Penetration Tests

AbstractThis paper develops a Bayesian approach for probabilistic site characterization (i.e., on both stratigraphy and soil properties) using cone penetration tests (CPTs). The available site information prior to the project (e.g., existing geological maps, geotechnical reports, and local experience) is used in the Bayesian approach as prior knowledge, and it is integrated systematically with results of CPTs that are performed deliberately for the project. The inherent spatial variability of soil is modeled explicitly by random field theory. The proposed approach contains two major components: a Bayesian model class selection method to identify the most probable number of statistically homogenous layers of soil and a Bayesian system identification method to estimate the most probable layer thicknesses and soil properties probabilistically. Equations are derived for the Bayesian approach, and the proposed approach is illustrated using a set of real CPT data obtained from a site in Netherlands. It has been...

[1]  Yu Wang,et al.  Bayesian approach for probabilistic characterization of sand friction angles , 2010 .

[2]  Wg Holtz.  THE RELATIVE DENSITY APPROACH-USES, TESTING REQUIREMENTS, RELIABILITY, AND SHORTCOMINGS , 1973 .

[3]  Wilson H. Tang,et al.  REDUCING UNCERTAINTY OF PREDICTION FROM EMPIRICAL CORRELATIONS , 2004 .

[4]  Gregory B. Baecher,et al.  Unresolved Problems in Geotechnical Risk and Reliability , 2011 .

[5]  J. Beck,et al.  Asymptotic Expansions for Reliability and Moments of Uncertain Systems , 1997 .

[6]  Shadi Najjar,et al.  Importance of Lower-Bound Capacities in the Design of Deep Foundations , 2009 .

[7]  Gordon A. Fenton,et al.  Estimation for Stochastic Soil Models , 1999 .

[8]  David J. C. MacKay,et al.  Bayesian Interpolation , 1992, Neural Computation.

[9]  W. H. Tang,et al.  Model Uncertainty in Offshore Geotechnical Reliability , 1995 .

[10]  Kok-Kwang Phoon,et al.  Reducing shear strength uncertainties in clays by multivariate correlations. , 2010 .

[11]  Ka-Veng Yuen,et al.  Recent developments of Bayesian model class selection and applications in civil engineering , 2010 .

[12]  J. Beck,et al.  Updating Models and Their Uncertainties. I: Bayesian Statistical Framework , 1998 .

[13]  Ka-Veng Yuen,et al.  Bayesian Probabilistic Approach for the Correlations of Compression Index for Marine Clays , 2009 .

[14]  A. Gomes Correia,et al.  Bayesian methodology for updating geomechanical parameters and uncertainty quantification , 2009 .

[15]  Jie Zhang,et al.  Bayesian Framework for Characterizing Geotechnical Model Uncertainty , 2009 .

[16]  M. Jaksa.  The influence of spatial variability on the geotechnical design properties of a stiff, overconsolidated clay. , 1995 .

[17]  Kok-Kwang Phoon,et al.  Identification of statistically homogeneous soil layers using modified Bartlett statistics , 2003 .

[18]  J. Beck,et al.  Model Selection using Response Measurements: Bayesian Probabilistic Approach , 2004 .

[19]  Dennis E Becker,et al.  EIGHTEENTH CANADIAN GEOTECHNICAL COLLOQUIUM: LIMIT STATES DESIGN FOR FOUNDATIONS. PART II. DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NATIONAL BUILDING CODE OF CANADA , 1996 .

[20]  Michael McVay,et al.  LOAD AND RESISTANCE FACTOR DESIGN (LRFD) FOR DEEP FOUNDATIONS , 2004 .

[21]  Paolo Gardoni,et al.  Probabilistic soil identification based on cone penetration tests , 2008 .

[22]  Fred H. Kulhawy,et al.  Expanded Reliability-Based Design Approach for Drilled Shafts , 2011 .

[23]  Peter Lumb,et al.  The Variability of Natural Soils , 1966 .

[24]  C. H. Juang,et al.  Reliability-based method for assessing liquefaction potential of soils , 1999 .

[25]  Yu Wang,et al.  Reliability-based design of spread foundations by Monte Carlo simulations , 2011 .

[26]  S. Gull.  Bayesian Inductive Inference and Maximum Entropy , 1988 .