A Coincidence Analysis of a Causal Chain

This article applies coincidence analysis (CNA), a Boolean method of causal analysis presented in Baumgartner (2009a), to configurational data on the Swiss minaret vote of 2009. CNA is related to qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) (Ragin 2008), but contrary to the latter does not minimize sufficient and necessary conditions by means of Quine–McCluskey optimization, but based on its own custom built optimization algorithm. The latter greatly facilitates the analysis of data featuring chain-like causal dependencies among the conditions of an ultimate outcome—as can be found in the data on the Swiss minaret vote. Apart from providing a model of the causal structure behind the Swiss minaret vote, we show that a CNA of that data is preferable over a QCA.

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