The application of a computer program to the analysis of sugar cane transport— a case study

Abstract Earlier work by the author was concerned with the production of a computer program which predicted the performance and operating costs of transport vehicles in the smallholder and estate sectors of developing countries. The program has been increased in scope and, from the same fundamental basis, now produces additional economic predictions concerned with system profitability and the cost-benefits of change. The application of the program to the analysis of a sugar cane transport system in a developing country is described. It was found that initial predictions of performance and costs were substantially lower than those found in practice, but during later phases it was established that this was accounted for by discrepancies in some of the data supplied. Factors of particular significance were vehicle utilization, equipment capital cost and the cost of spares and repairs as a proportion of depreciation. The initial program outputs were useful in challenging suspect data and subsequent data revisions produced a reasonably close match between the computer predictions and actual performance of the system. The program was then used to model the cost effectiveness of upgrading the surface standards of roads in the factory catchment area. Upgrading was not likely to be justifiable except under closely defined conditions in the central area. It was concluded that the program can be useful in modelling an existing transport system with a view to subsequent investigation of the likely benefits of changes in vehicle or condition specifications.