CHAPTER 2. FORECASTING ROAD TRAFFIC GROWTH: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIOS

The authors of this chapter have been examining the implications for road traffic growth of demographic change and of alternative transport policy scenarios. The project had four main steps. 1985-86 UK National Travel Survey data were analysed to provide base year trip rates and distances for population groups defined by socioeconomic characteristics, location, and car availability; population forecasts for 2006 for the same categories were produced. Base year trip rates were projected forward to forecast transport demand for 2006 by mode and settlement type. Parameters were calculated to adjust these forecasts to allow for the effects of other policies in 2006. The policies of interest related to transport infrastructure, traffic management, driver information, road pricing, fuel duty, public transport fares, and land use. A table summarises the results of a series of policy tests for future levels of private transport. The tests are: (1) halting the drift of populations from conurbations to rural areas; (2) not building new or expanded roads to increase capacity, thus substantially worsening congestion; (3) halving public transport fares; (4) introducing road pricing either in London only or in all UK conurbations; and (5) doubling or tripling petrol prices. Some future research plans are outlined. For the covering abstract, see IRRD E101216.