Chaos theory in geophysics: past, present and future

Abstract The past two decades of research on chaos theory in geophysics has brought about a significant shift in the way we view geophysical phenomena. Research on chaos theory in geophysics continues to grow at a much faster pace, with applications to a wide variety of geophysical phenomena and geophysical problems. In spite of our success in understanding geophysical phenomena also from a different (i.e. chaotic) perspective, there still seems to be lingering suspicions on the scope of chaos theory in geophysics. The goal of this paper is to present a comprehensive account of the achievements and status of chaos theory in geophysics, and to disseminate the hope and scope for the future. A systematic review of chaos theory in geophysics, covering a wide spectrum of geophysical phenomena studied (e.g. rainfall, river flow, sediment transport, temperature, pressure, tree ring series, etc.), is presented to narrate our past achievements not only in understanding and predicting geophysical phenomena but also in improving the chaos identification and prediction techniques. The present state of chaos research in geophysics (in terms of geophysical phenomena, problems, and chaos methods) and potential for future improvements (in terms of where, why and possibly how) are also highlighted. Our popular views of nature (i.e. stochastic and deterministic), and of geophysical phenomena in particular, are discussed, and the usefulness of chaos theory as a bridge between such views is also put forth.

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