A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model structure defined at the model element scale and multi-source model identification. The model represents runoff generation on a grid basis and lumped routing in the river reaches. Ensemble Kalman Filtering is used to update the model states (grid soil moisture) based on observed runoff. The forecast errors as a function of forecast lead time are evaluated for a number of major events in the 622km^2 Kamp catchment and range from 10% to 30% for 4-24h lead times, respectively.

[1]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  Spatial Patterns of Catchment Hydrology: Observations and Modelling , 2000 .

[2]  V. Klemeš.  Conceptualization and scale in hydrology , 1983 .

[3]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  Spatial Modelling of Catchment Dynamics , 2004 .

[4]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  Summary of Pattern Comparison and Concluding Remarks , 2004 .

[5]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  On the Fundamentals of Hydrological Sciences , 2006 .

[6]  G. Evensen.  Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi‐geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics , 1994 .

[7]  Murugesu Sivapalan,et al.  Pattern, Process and Function: Elements of a Unified Theory of Hydrology at the Catchment Scale , 2006 .

[8]  Alberto Montanari,et al.  AFFDEF: A spatially distributed grid based rainfall-runoff model for continuous time simulations of river discharge , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[9]  Keith Beven,et al.  Changing ideas in hydrology — The case of physically-based models , 1989 .

[10]  B. Golding.  Nimrod: a system for generating automated very short range forecasts , 1998 .

[11]  Murugesu Sivapalan,et al.  Downward approach to hydrological prediction , 2003 .

[12]  G. Blöschl,et al.  Distributed Snowmelt Simulations in an Alpine Catchment: 1. Model Evaluation on the Basis of Snow Cover Patterns , 1991 .

[13]  R. Merz,et al.  A process typology of regional floods , 2003 .

[14]  P. E. O'connell,et al.  An introduction to the European Hydrological System — Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, “SHE”, 1: History and philosophy of a physically-based, distributed modelling system , 1986 .

[15]  J. Sui,et al.  Rain-on-snow induced flood events in Southern Germany , 2001 .

[16]  Walter Collischonn,et al.  Predicting daily streamflow using rainfall forecasts, a simple loss module and unit hydrographs: Two Brazilian catchments , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[17]  D. Gutknecht.  ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF "APPLICABLE" MODELS FOR FLOOD FORECASTING , 1991 .

[18]  Valentina Krysanova,et al.  Implications of complexity and uncertainty for integrated modelling and impact assessment in river basins , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[19]  M. G. Anderson.  Encyclopedia of hydrological sciences. , 2005 .

[20]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  Advances in the use of observed spatial patterns of catchment hydrological response , 2002 .

[21]  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz,et al.  Nonlinear flood routing with multilinear models , 1987 .

[22]  H. Madsen,et al.  Comparison of extended and ensemble Kalman filters for data assimilation in coastal area modelling , 1999 .

[23]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models , 2006, Environ. Model. Softw..

[24]  J. Szolgay.  Multilinear flood routing using variable travel-time discharge relationships on the Hron River , 2004 .

[25]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  Uncertainty and multiple objective calibration in regional water balance modelling: case study in 320 Austrian catchments , 2007 .

[26]  G. Blöschl,et al.  Regionale Wasserbilanzkomponenten für Österreich auf Tagesbasis , 2005 .

[27]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  Hydrologic synthesis: Across processes, places, and scales , 2006 .

[28]  R. Allan Freeze,et al.  Mathematical simulation of subsurface flow contributions to snowmelt runoff, Reynolds Creek Watershed, Idaho , 1974 .

[29]  Keith Beven,et al.  Dalton Medal Lecture: How far can we go in distributed hydrological modelling? , 2001 .

[30]  Erwin Zehe,et al.  On hydrological predictability , 2005 .

[31]  R. Allan Freeze,et al.  A Comparison of Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Techniques on Small Upland Catchments , 1985 .

[32]  A. Jakeman,et al.  How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall‐runoff model? , 1993 .