Estimating Effective Concentration in Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Markets

To inform debates about deregulation of wholesale markets for electricity, we estimate effective concentration in those markets in the contiguous United States in 1978. Our estimates are based on simulated oligopolistic equilibria, the characteristics of which are derived from a new and comprehensive data base. We find, among other things, that effective concentration is highly dependent on the adequacy of transmission capacity in each area, about which usable data are unavailable, and on the behavior of the existing public enterprises in this industry. Policy implications of our findings are discussed.