A new Bayesian method to forecast and fine tune individual hemodialysis dose

Background:  The most commonly used formulas for hemodialysis dose are based on single‐pool urea kinetics; i.e., they consider the body as a single compartment and use an ad hoc adjustment for postdialysis urea rebound. We present a new urea kinetic modeling approach, individualized Bayesian urea kinetic modeling (IBKM), which incorporates prior knowledge. This method uses measurements made during previous treatments to forecast a patient's postdialysis urea rebound and clearance and provides a choice of possible dialysis parameters to achieve a desired clearance goal.

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