Costs avoided by the use of wind energy in the Netherlands

Abstract The costs that can be avoided by the application of wind energy in the Netherlands are investigated by analysing the extent to which wind power production can save fuel and conventional capacity and reduce emissions of NO x , SO 2 and CO 2 to the atmosphere. The capacity savings are evaluated using an analysis of the reliability of the total electricity generating system. The fuel and emission savings are evaluated using a chronological simulation model for the production of electricity. The avoided costs are calculated on the basis of proposed figures for the future costs of fuel, investment, operation, maintenance and advanced techniques to reduce the emission of NO x , SO 2 and CO 2 . The avoided costs are translated into the breakeven kWh costs of wind energy. The calculations are carried out for proposed electricity consumption and the electricity generating capacity based on figures supplied by the Dutch Electricity Generating Board (Sep) for the future, up to the year 2010. Special attention is paid to the modelling of the hourly wind power production. The model incorporates detailed information about the wind climate, siting and power performance curves of wind turbines. The avoided costs are evaluated over the period 1995–2010; in this period the total installed wind turbine capacity is expected to increase from 400 MW in 1995 to 2000 MW in 2010. The mean value of the breakeven kWh costs of wind energy over this 15-year period is calculated to be 0.109 Dfl 1987 /kWh. In this period the breakeven kWh cost will decrease from 0.121 Dfl/kWh in 1995 to 0.100 Dfl/kWh in 2010, due to a shift in electricity generating plant mix towards more coal fired units, more integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) units and more efficient units and because of the increase in installed wind turbine capacity. The decrease will be partly compensated by an increase in fuel prices during these years. The avoided costs are also calculated as a function of the degree of penetration of wind power, using proposed figures for one year only, the year 2000. On the basis of these calculations it is also possible to estimate a mean value for the breakeven kWh cost of wind energy. The mean value is found to be 0.112 Dfl/kWh. This value deviates by only 3% from the mean value of the breakeven kWh costs estimated over a 15-year period. It is concluded that the results calculated for the year 2000 give a representative picture of the costs avoided by the use of wind energy up to the year 2010.