Tornado Warning Decisions Using Phased-Array Radar Data

AbstractThe 2012 Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment identified how rapidly scanned full-volumetric data captured known mesoscale processes and impacted tornado-warning lead time. Twelve forecasters from nine National Weather Service forecast offices used this rapid-scan phased-array radar (PAR) data to issue tornado warnings on two low-end tornadic and two nontornadic supercell cases. Verification of the tornadic cases revealed that forecasters’ use of PAR data provided a median tornado-warning lead time (TLT) of 20 min. This 20-min TLT exceeded by 6.5 and 9 min, respectively, participants’ forecast office and regions’ median spring season, low-end TLTs (2008–13). Furthermore, polygon-based probability of detection ranged from 0.75 to 1.0 and probability of false alarm for all four cases ranged from 0.0 to 0.5. Similar performance was observed regardless of prior warning experience. Use of a cognitive task analysis method called the recent case walk-through showed that this performance was d...

[1]  Sebastián M. Torres,et al.  Adaptive Range Oversampling to Achieve Faster Scanning on the National Weather Radar Testbed Phased-Array Radar , 2011 .

[2]  David M. Schultz,et al.  CORRIGENDUM: False Alarm Rate or False Alarm Ratio? , 2009 .

[3]  Daphne LaDue,et al.  Exploring Impacts of Rapid-Scan Radar Data on NWS Warning Decisions , 2012 .

[4]  Elizabeth M. Quoetone,et al.  Warning Decision Making: The Relative Roles of Conceptual Models, Technology, Strategy, and Forecaster Expertise on 3 May 1999 , 2002 .

[5]  Stanley G. Benjamin,et al.  CONVECTIVE-SCALE WARN-ON-FORECAST SYSTEM: A vision for 2020 , 2009 .

[6]  Gary Klein,et al.  Working Minds: A Practitioner's Guide to Cognitive Task Analysis , 2006 .

[7]  J. Brotzge,et al.  Tornadoes without NWS Warning , 2010 .

[8]  Sebastián M. Torres,et al.  High-Temporal-Resolution Capabilities of the National Weather Radar Testbed Phased-Array Radar , 2011 .

[9]  T. Marshall.  Damage Survey of the Joplin Tornado , 2012 .

[10]  Yan Zhang,et al.  The Atmospheric Imaging Radar: Simultaneous Volumetric Observations Using a Phased Array Weather Radar , 2013 .

[11]  Robert R. Lee,et al.  New WSR-88D Volume Coverage Pattern 12: Results of Field Tests , 2005 .

[12]  Rodger A. Brown,et al.  Simulated Vortex Detection Using a Four-Face Phased-Array Doppler Radar , 2012 .

[13]  Vincent T. Wood,et al.  Improved WSR-88D Scanning Strategies for Convective Storms , 2000 .

[14]  Jeffrey B. Knorr,et al.  A Mobile, Phased-Array Doppler Radar For The Study of Severe Convective Storms , 2010 .

[15]  R. Hutton,et al.  Applied cognitive task analysis (ACTA): a practitioner's toolkit for understanding cognitive task demands. , 1998, Ergonomics.

[16]  Robert R. Hoffman,et al.  Protocols for Cognitive Task Analysis , 2005 .

[17]  R. Vogt,et al.  Agile-Beam Phased Array Radar for Weather Observations , 2007 .

[18]  David J. Stensrud,et al.  Impact of Phased-Array Radar Observations over a Short Assimilation Period: Observing System Simulation Experiments Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter , 2010 .

[19]  Christopher D. Karstens,et al.  Analysis of Tornado-Induced Tree Fall Using Aerial Photography from the Joplin, Missouri, and Tuscaloosa–Birmingham, Alabama, Tornadoes of 2011* , 2013 .

[20]  Arthur Witt,et al.  Evaluating the Performance of WSR-88D Severe Storm Detection Algorithms , 1998 .

[21]  J. McLennan,et al.  Studying Complex Decision Making in Natural Settings: Using a Head-Mounted Video Camera to Study Competitive Orienteering , 1994, Perceptual and motor skills.

[22]  Erik N. Rasmussen,et al.  The Second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment: VORTEX2 , 2012 .

[23]  Daniel Sutter,et al.  The Time Cost of Tornado Warnings and the Savings with Storm-Based Warnings , 2010 .

[24]  Christopher D. Curtis,et al.  Beam Multiplexing Using the Phased-Array Weather Radar , 2007 .