Which Brands Gain Share from Which Brands? Inference from Store-Level Scanner Data

Market share models for weekly store-level data are useful to understand competitive structures by delivering own and cross price elasticities. These models can however not be used to examine which brands lose share to which brands during a specific period of time. It is for this purpose that we propose a new model, which does allow for such an examination. We illustrate the model for two product categories in two markets, and we show that our model has validity in terms of both in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting. We also demonstrate how our model can be used to decompose own and cross price elasticities to get additional insights into the competitive structure.

[1]  R. Brodie,et al.  Building models for marketing decisions , 2000 .

[2]  C. Krumhansl.  Concerning the Applicability of Geometric Models to Similarity Data : The Interrelationship Between Similarity and Spatial Density , 2005 .

[3]  Lee G. Cooper,et al.  Market-Share Analysis: Evaluating Competitive Marketing Effectiveness , 1988 .

[4]  R. Brodie,et al.  Attraction versus Linear and Multiplicative Market Share Models: An Empirical Evaluation , 1984 .

[5]  Gary J. Russell,et al.  A Relationship between Market Share Elasticities and Brand Switching Probabilities , 1998 .

[6]  James M. Lattin,et al.  A Two-State Model of Purchase Incidence and Brand Choice , 1991 .

[7]  V. Padmanabhan,et al.  Competitive Response and Equilibria , 1995 .

[8]  Dick R. Wittink,et al.  Is 75% of the Sales Promotion Bump Due to Brand Switching? No, Only 33% Is , 2003 .

[9]  L. McAlister,et al.  Using a Variety-Seeking Model to Identify Substitute and Complementary Relationships among Competing Products , 1985 .

[10]  Lee G. Cooper.  Competitive Maps: The Structure Underlying Asymmetric Cross Elasticities , 1988 .

[11]  Moshe Givon.  Variety Seeking Through Brand Switching , 1984 .

[12]  J. Magnus,et al.  Matrix Differential Calculus with Applications in Statistics and Econometrics , 1991 .

[13]  Robert C. Blattberg,et al.  How Promotions Work , 1995 .

[14]  Robert C. Blattberg,et al.  Price-Induced Patterns of Competition , 1989 .

[15]  P. Naert,et al.  On the Prediction Power of Market Share Attraction Models , 1981 .

[16]  Youhua Chen,et al.  Forecasting market shares with disaggregate or pooled data: a comparison of attraction models , 1994 .

[17]  Bruce G. S. Hardie,et al.  Modeling Loss Aversion and Reference Dependence Effects on Brand Choice , 1993 .

[18]  P. Franses,et al.  Erim Report Series Research in Management Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model Bibliographic Data and Classifications , 2022 .

[19]  Wagner A. Kamakura,et al.  Understanding Brand Competition Using Micro and Macro Scanner Data , 1994 .

[20]  J. M. Villas-Boas,et al.  Endogeneity in Brand Choice Models , 1999 .

[21]  Dick R. Wittink,et al.  Do Household Scanner Data Provide Representative Inferences from Brand Choices: A Comparison with Store Data , 1996 .

[22]  Sunil Gupta.  Impact of Sales Promotions on when, what, and how Much to Buy , 1988 .

[23]  D. McFadden.  Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior , 1972 .

[24]  V. Srinivasan,et al.  Asymmetric and Neighborhood Cross-Price Effects: Some Empirical Generalizations , 1999 .

[25]  J. Magnus,et al.  Matrix Differential Calculus with Applications in Statistics and Econometrics (Revised Edition) , 1999 .

[26]  Bart J. Bronnenberg,et al.  Asymmetric Promotion Effects and Brand Positioning , 1996 .

[27]  Pradeep K. Chintagunta,et al.  A model of inertia and variety-seeking with marketing variables , 1998 .

[28]  Gary J. Russell,et al.  A Probabilistic Choice Model for Market Segmentation and Elasticity Structure , 1989 .

[29]  Ajay K. Manrai,et al.  A New Multidimensional Scaling Methodology for the Analysis of Asymmetric Proximity Data in Marketing Research , 1992 .

[30]  D. Wittink,et al.  Is 3/4 of the Sales Promotion Bump Due to Brand Switching? No it is 1/3 , 2003 .

[31]  John C. Gower,et al.  Graphical Representation of Asymmetric Matrices , 1978 .

[32]  M. Ben-Akiva,et al.  Discrete choice analysis , 1989 .

[33]  James D. Hamilton.  Time Series Analysis , 1994 .

[34]  Shiv K. Gupta,et al.  Mathematical Models in Marketing , 1967, Oper. Res..

[35]  Peter E. Rossi,et al.  Quality perceptions and asymmetric switching between brands , 1991 .

[36]  Timothy B. Heath,et al.  A comparative study of market share models using disaggregate data , 1990 .

[37]  J. C. Higgins.  Mathematical Models in Marketing , 1972 .

[38]  Steven T. Berry,et al.  Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium , 1995 .