Static and dynamic metrics of economic resilience for interdependent infrastructure and industry sectors

Abstract Infrastructures are needed for maintaining functionality and stability of society, while being put under substantial stresses from natural or man-made shocks. Since avoiding shock is impossible, increased focus is given to infrastructure resilience, which denotes the ability to recover and operate under new stable regimes. This paper addresses the problem of estimating, quantifying and planning for economic resilience of interdependent infrastructures, where interconnectedness adds to problem complexity. The risk-based economic input–output model enterprise, a useful tool for measuring the cascading effects of interdependent failures, is employed to introduce a framework for economic resilience estimation. We propose static and dynamic measures for resilience that confirm to well-known resilience concepts of robustness, rapidity, redundancy, and resourcefulness. The quantitative metrics proposed here (static resilience metric, time averaged level of operability, maximum loss of functionality, time to recovery) guide a preparedness decision making framework to promote interdependent economic resilience estimation. Using the metrics we introduce new multi-dimensional resilience functions that allow multiple resource allocation scenarios. Through an example problem we demonstrate the usefulness of these functions in guiding resource planning for building resilience.

[1]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Managing the risk of terrorism to interdependent infrastructure systems through the dynamic inoperability input–output model , 2006 .

[2]  Joost R. Santos,et al.  Measuring changes in international production from a disruption: Case study of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami , 2012 .

[3]  Thomas L. Landers,et al.  Interdependent Impacts of Inoperability at Multi-Modal Transportation Container Terminals , 2011 .

[4]  Joost R. Santos,et al.  Modeling the Demand Reduction Input‐Output (I‐O) Inoperability Due to Terrorism of Interconnected Infrastructures * , 2004, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[5]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Fostering resilience to extreme events within infrastructure systems: Characterizing decision contexts for mitigation and adaptation , 2008 .

[6]  Kash Barker,et al.  Sequential Decision-making in Interdependent Sectors with Multiobjective Inoperability Decision Trees: Application to Biofuel Subsidy Analysis , 2008 .

[7]  Kash Barker,et al.  A Risk‐Based Approach for Identifying Key Economic and Infrastructure Systems , 2010, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[8]  Christopher W. Zobel,et al.  Representing perceived tradeoffs in defining disaster resilience , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[9]  Peter D. Blair,et al.  Input-Output Analysis , 2009 .

[10]  Christopher W. Zobel,et al.  Comparative visualization of predicted disaster resilience , 2010, ISCRAM.

[11]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  On the Definition of Resilience in Systems , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[12]  Terje Aven,et al.  On Some Recent Definitions and Analysis Frameworks for Risk, Vulnerability, and Resilience , 2011, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[13]  Robert J. Nicholls,et al.  Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept? , 2003 .

[14]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors , 2009, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[15]  A. Rose Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters: Multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions , 2007 .

[16]  Michael K. Reiter,et al.  Homeland Security , 2004, IEEE Internet Comput..

[17]  Kash Barker,et al.  Empirical data and regression analysis for estimation of infrastructure resilience, with application to electric power outages , 2013 .

[18]  A. Rose DEFINING AND MEASURING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE TO DISASTERS , 2004 .

[19]  Jonas Johansson,et al.  An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis , 2010, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[20]  Kash Barker,et al.  Evaluating the Consequences of an Inland Waterway Port Closure With a Dynamic Multiregional Interdependence Model , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans.

[21]  Stefano Panzieri,et al.  Agent-based input-output interdependency model , 2010, Int. J. Crit. Infrastructure Prot..

[22]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Measuring Improvements in the Disaster Resilience of Communities , 2004 .

[23]  Kash Barker,et al.  Resilience-based network component importance measures , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[24]  Jose Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez,et al.  Resiliency as a component importance measure in network reliability , 2009, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[25]  Kathleen J. Tierney,et al.  Business Impacts of the Northridge Earthquake , 1997 .

[26]  Kash Barker,et al.  Measuring the efficacy of inventory with a dynamic input-output model , 2010 .

[27]  Drake E. Warren,et al.  A Framework for Assessing the Resilience of Infrastructure and Economic Systems , 2010 .

[28]  Devanandham Henry,et al.  Generic metrics and quantitative approaches for system resilience as a function of time , 2012, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[29]  Kash Barker,et al.  Stochastic Measures of Network Resilience: Applications to Waterway Commodity Flows , 2014, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[30]  M. Ulieru Design for Resilience of Networked Critical Infrastructures , 2007, 2007 Inaugural IEEE-IES Digital EcoSystems and Technologies Conference.

[31]  Min Ouyang,et al.  A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems , 2012 .

[32]  K. C. Kapur,et al.  Methodology for Assessing the Resilience of Networked Infrastructure , 2009, IEEE Systems Journal.

[33]  Michel Bruneau,et al.  A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities , 2003 .

[34]  Brian Wixted,et al.  Input-Output Analysis in an Increasingly Globalised World , 2006 .

[35]  A. Rose,et al.  Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions , 2005 .