Stochastic Optimization Models for Risk-Based Reservoir Management*

The paper provides an overview of publications on reservoir management and formulates a novel stochastic dynamic optimization model for water balance management in the area affected. The proposed stochastic optimization approach allows multiple key performance indicators such as agriculture and energy production, wetland water and flood protection, biodiversity preservation, and reservoir storage. The two-stage feature of the proposed model induces safety constraints on water supply known as chance conditions in stochastic optimization: safety constraints in nuclear energy, stability constraints in insurance business, or constraints on the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in finance. The original nonlinear, nonconvex and often discontinuous model can be reduced to linear programming problems.

[1]  V. O. Shanholtz,et al.  A finite-element model of overland and channel flow for assessing the hydrologic impact of land-use change , 1979 .

[2]  Daniel S. Wilks,et al.  Simultaneous stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation at multiple sites in complex terrain , 1999 .

[3]  James F. Booker,et al.  Can Reservoir Storage Be Uneconomically Large , 2006 .

[4]  James M. Murphy,et al.  An Evaluation of Statistical and Dynamical Techniques for Downscaling Local Climate , 1999 .

[5]  John W. Labadie,et al.  Optimal Operation of Multireservoir Systems: State-of-the-Art Review , 2004 .

[6]  R. Ibbitt,et al.  Fitting Methods for Conceptual Catchment Models , 1971 .

[7]  K. Tockner,et al.  An extension of the flood pulse concept. , 2000 .

[8]  A. Georgakakos,et al.  Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios: 2. Reservoir management , 2001 .

[9]  X. Chen,et al.  A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed, China , 2012 .

[10]  G. Bürger.  Expanded downscaling for generating local weather scenarios , 1996 .

[11]  Christel Prudhomme,et al.  Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments , 2003 .

[12]  Huicheng Zhou,et al.  Ensemble hydrological prediction‐based real‐time optimization of a multiobjective reservoir during flood season in a semiarid basin with global numerical weather predictions , 2012 .

[13]  James P. Hughes,et al.  Stochastic downscaling of numerical climate model simulations , 1998 .

[14]  Ralph A. Wurbs.  Reservoir‐System Simulation and Optimization Models , 1993 .

[15]  C. Prudhomme,et al.  Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now? , 2002 .

[16]  Dawen Yang,et al.  Identifying effective forecast horizon for real‐time reservoir operation under a limited inflow forecast , 2012 .

[17]  Hubert J. Morel-Seytoux,et al.  Optimal weekly releases from a seasonal reservoir: 1. Deterministic future , 1979 .

[18]  K. Georgakakos,et al.  Assessment of Folsom lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios: 1. Forecasting , 2001 .

[19]  D. Sailor,et al.  A neural network approach to local downscaling of GCM output for assessing wind power implications of climate change , 2000 .

[20]  P. E. O'connell,et al.  An introduction to the European Hydrological System — Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, “SHE”, 2: Structure of a physically-based, distributed modelling system , 1986 .

[21]  P. S. Eagleson.  Dynamics of flood frequency , 1972 .

[22]  Reinaldo Castro Souza,et al.  Stochastic Dynamic Programming Applied to Hydrothermal Power Systems Operation Planning Based on the Convex Hull Algorithm , 2010 .

[23]  P. Jones,et al.  The use of weather types and air flow indices for GCM downscaling , 1998 .

[24]  G H Huang,et al.  Inexact multistage stochastic integer programming for water resources management under uncertainty. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.

[25]  B. F. Sule,et al.  Stochastic dynamic programming models for reservoir operation optimization , 1984 .

[26]  M. H. Diskin,et al.  Application of a Cell Model to the Bellebeek Watershed , 1984 .

[27]  A. Bárdossy,et al.  Multivariate stochastic downscaling model for generating daily precipitation series based on atmospheric circulation , 2002 .

[28]  J. Lund,et al.  Optimal Hedging and Carryover Storage Value , 2004 .

[29]  M. Semenov,et al.  USE OF A STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS , 1997 .

[30]  M. H. Diskin,et al.  A QUASI-LINEAR SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED CELL MODEL FOR THE SURFACE RUNOFF SYSTEM , 1978 .

[31]  E. Laurenson,et al.  A catchment storage model for runoff routing , 1964 .

[32]  William W.-G. Yeh,et al.  Reservoir Management and Operations Models: A State‐of‐the‐Art Review , 1985 .

[33]  Christian W. Dawson,et al.  SDSM - a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts , 2002, Environ. Model. Softw..

[34]  R. Rockafellar,et al.  Optimization of conditional value-at risk , 2000 .

[35]  A. Hollingsworth,et al.  Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System , 1999 .

[36]  A. W. Jayawardena,et al.  A FINITE ELEMENT DISTRIBUTED CATCHMENT MODEL, I. ANALYTICAL BASIS , 1977 .

[37]  Jianshi Zhao,et al.  Optimizing Operation of Water Supply Reservoir: The Role of Constraints , 2014 .

[38]  Renata J. Romanowicz,et al.  An Integrated Data Based Mechanistic Lowland Catchment Model for the Upper Narew , 2008 .

[39]  Y. Ermoliev,et al.  Systemic Risk and Security Management , 2012 .

[40]  Richard N. Palmer,et al.  Decision Support System for Optimizing Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions , 2011 .

[41]  A. Thomsen,et al.  WATBAL: A Semi-Distributed, Physically Based Hydrological Modelling System , 1986 .

[42]  K. Beven,et al.  Development of a European flood forecasting system , 2003 .

[43]  Ximing Cai,et al.  Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 1. A theoretical analysis , 2008 .

[44]  Denis Tremblay,et al.  Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems , 2012 .

[45]  Yuri Ermoliev,et al.  Numerical techniques for stochastic optimization , 1988 .

[46]  Richard G. Jones,et al.  Simulation of climate change over europe using a nested regional‐climate model. I: Assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries , 1995 .

[47]  William W.-G. Yeh,et al.  Real‐Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties , 2017 .

[48]  Miguel A. Mariño,et al.  Risk analysis for reservoir operation , 1986 .