Social consensus making support system by qualitative and quantitative hybrid simulation

This paper addresses support for making the social consensus on risk-reducing plans among experts and stakeholders. Parameters are given on risk-reducing plans in order to decide which risk-reducing plans are performed, but the parameters are so uncertain that experts can not set values to parameters. So, it is difficult for experts to set an agreed value to the parameters. Due to the uncertain parameters, if experts acquire the agreed combination of risk-reducing plans, the evaluation values are also uncertain. Therefore, it is difficult for stakeholders of risk to understand the evaluations. We propose the consensus making support system that enables experts to decide the combination by qualitative values and enables stakeholders to understand the evaluations by probability distributions. The proposed system decides the combination by converting qualitative values to quantitative values by random numbers and derive the probability distributions by Monte Carlo simulation. In order to realize these requirements, we apply the qualitative and quantitative hybrid simulation to the proposed system. As a result of the application to a consensus making problem, it is confirmed that the proposed system is effective for consensus making. And, in order to improve the system, it is necessary to support adjusting parameters to acquire the agreed combination.

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