Scenarios of e-Government in 2010 and implications for strategy design

This contribution focuses on e-Government as a comprehensive change programme and develops alternative scenarios with a view towards 2010. Empirical evidence of substantial risks to a successful implementation and operation of e-Government calls for a forward-looking approach and possible ways of correcting a wide-spread neglect of long-term innovation risks. The paper explores the scenario method as an established instrument for improving strategic decisions in a context of change, uncertainty and complex environments. Its application in a Europe-wide research project leads to three macro-scenarios with divergent implications for e-Government prospects. The conclusions suggest particular requirements for developing more robust e-Government strategies and encourage a wider use of scenario processes.

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