Expectations for the Deep Impact collision from modelling of cometary nuclei

Using the cometary nucleus model developed by Espinasse et al., we calculate the thermodynamical evolution of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 over a period of 360 yr. Starting from an initially amorphous cometary nucleus which incorporates an icy mixture of H2O and CO, we show that, at the time of Deep Impact collision, the crater is expected to form at depths where ice is in its crystalline form. Hence the subsurface exposed to space should not be primordial. We also attempt an order-of-magnitude estimate of the heating and material ablation effects on the crater activity caused by the 370-kg projectile released by the Deep Impact spacecraft. We thus show that heating effects play no role in the evolution of crater activity. We calculate that the CO production rate from the impacted region should be about 300‐400 times higher from the crater resulting from the impact with a 35-m ablation than over the unperturbed nucleus in the immediate post-impact period. We also show that the H2O production rate is decreased by several orders of magnitude at the crater base just after ablation. Ke yw ords: comets: individual: 9P/Tempel 1.