Uncertain Johnson–Schumacher growth model with imprecise observations and k-fold cross-validation test

Regression is a powerful tool to study how the response variables vary due to changes of explanatory variables. Unlike traditional statistics or mathematics where data are assumed fairly accurate, we notice that the real-world data are messy and obscure; thus, the uncertainty theory seems more appropriate. In this paper, we focus on the residual analysis of the Johnson–Schumacher growth model, with parameter estimation performed by the least squares method, followed by the prediction intervals for new explanatory variables. We also propose a k-fold cross-validation method for model selection with imprecise observations. A numerical example illustrates that our approach will achieve better prediction accuracy.

[1]  Norris O. Johnson A Trend Line for Growth Series , 1935 .

[2]  Baoding Liu Why is There a Need for Uncertainty Theory , 2012 .

[3]  Baoding Liu,et al.  Uncertain regression analysis: an approach for imprecise observations , 2018, Soft Comput..

[4]  Baoding Liu,et al.  Uncertainty Theory - A Branch of Mathematics for Modeling Human Uncertainty , 2011, Studies in Computational Intelligence.

[5]  Chiang Kao,et al.  Least-squares estimates in fuzzy regression analysis , 2003, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[6]  Dan A. Ralescu,et al.  B-Spline Method of Uncertain Statistics with Applications to Estimate Travel Distance , 2012 .

[7]  James M. Keller,et al.  Editorial Celebrating 25 Years of the IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems , 2018, IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst..

[8]  Kai Yao Uncertain Statistical Inference Models With Imprecise Observations , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems.

[9]  Baoding Liu,et al.  Uncertainty Theory - A Branch of Mathematics for Modeling Human Uncertainty , 2011, Studies in Computational Intelligence.

[10]  Hideo Tanaka,et al.  Fuzzy regression analysis using neural networks , 1992 .

[11]  Wenyi Zeng,et al.  Fuzzy Linear Regression Model , 2008, 2008 International Symposium on Information Science and Engineering.

[12]  C. Gauss Theory of the Motion of the Heavenly Bodies Moving About the Sun in Conic Sections , 1957 .

[13]  Baoding Liu,et al.  Uncertain time series analysis with imprecise observations , 2018, Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making.

[14]  Xiaosheng Wang,et al.  Method of moments for estimating uncertainty distributions , 2014 .

[15]  G. Yule On the Theory of Correlation , 1897 .

[16]  F. Y. Edgeworth XXII. On a new method of reducing observations relating to several quantities , 1888 .

[17]  F. Galton Regression Towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature. , 1886 .

[18]  Baoding Liu,et al.  Residual and confidence interval for uncertain regression model with imprecise observations , 2018, J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst..

[19]  Jinwu Gao,et al.  Resolution Principle in Uncertain Random Environment , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems.

[20]  Liang Fang,et al.  Uncertain revised regression analysis with responses of logarithmic, square root and reciprocal transformations , 2020, Soft Comput..

[21]  Baoding Liu Some Research Problems in Uncertainty Theory , 2009 .

[22]  Jun Cheng,et al.  PP-120 Cloning and screening transregulated genes of HBEBP2 by SSH , 2011 .

[23]  Yuanlong Song,et al.  Uncertain multivariable regression model , 2018, Soft Computing.

[24]  Kai Yao,et al.  A formula to calculate the variance of uncertain variable , 2015, Soft Comput..