Evidential Probability

We characterize and illustrate evidential probability--an interval-valued measure of uncertainty that applies to sentences. Evidential probability is also taken to be relative to a body of knowledge or a database representing the data on which judgments of uncertainty are to be made. Every statement is equivalent to some statement to which statistics in the database are relevant. The problem is to find the correct statement; this is the problem of finding the correct reference class for a statement. A set of rules for determining the correct reference class is offered.

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