Fire risk in buildings: Scenario definition and ignition frequency calculations

This work proposes a methodology for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in a scenario where, as an example, upholstered furniture is the target product and an auxiliary heating device (electric heaters, wood stoves) is the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat transfer processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution of the frequency of ignition for the product.

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