A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description.

A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.

[1]  J. Salt,et al.  Emergency vaccination of pigs against foot-and-mouth disease: protection against disease and reduction in contact transmission. , 1998, Vaccine.

[2]  J. W. Wilesmith,et al.  Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001 , 2001, Veterinary Record.

[3]  R. Huirne,et al.  A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. , 2002, Preventive veterinary medicine.

[4]  J. W. Wilesmith,et al.  Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001 , 2001, Veterinary Record.

[5]  William Lane Austin,et al.  The Census of Agriculture , 1930 .

[6]  T. E. Carpenter,et al.  A Linear Programming Model used in Animal Disease Control , 1979 .

[7]  Mark C Thurmond,et al.  Benefit-cost analysis of vaccination and preemptive slaughter as a means of eradicating foot-and-mouth disease. , 2003, American journal of veterinary research.

[8]  R. Kitching,et al.  Predicting the level of herd infection for outbreaks of foot- and-mouth disease in vaccinated herds , 1999, Epidemiology and Infection.

[9]  M. Schoenbaum,et al.  Modeling alternative mitigation strategies for a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States. , 2003, Preventive veterinary medicine.

[10]  Mark C Thurmond,et al.  Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. , 2003, American journal of veterinary research.

[11]  T E Carpenter,et al.  Direct and indirect contact rates among beef, dairy, goat, sheep, and swine herds in three California counties, with reference to control of potential foot-and-mouth disease transmission. , 2001, American journal of veterinary research.

[12]  P. Barnett,et al.  Emergency vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease: rate of development of immunity and its implications for the carrier state. , 1994, Vaccine.

[13]  Douglas J. Miller,et al.  Maximum entropy econometrics: robust estimation with limited data , 1996 .

[14]  R. Kitching,et al.  Aspects of emergency vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease. , 2002, Comparative immunology, microbiology and infectious diseases.

[15]  R S Morris,et al.  Decision-support tools for foot and mouth disease control. , 2002, Revue scientifique et technique.

[16]  J. Salt,et al.  Emergency vaccination of sheep against foot-and-mouth disease: protection against disease and reduction in contact transmission. , 1998, Vaccine.

[17]  N. Taylor,et al.  Evaluation of the appicatoion of veteroinary judgement in the pre-emptive cull of contiguous premises during the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Cumbria in 2001 , 2004, Veterinary Record.

[18]  J. Pacheco,et al.  Vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease virus confers complete clinical protection in 7 days and partial protection in 4 days: Use in emergency outbreak response. , 2005, Vaccine.

[19]  Javier M. Ekboir,et al.  POTENTIAL IMPACT OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE IN CALIFORNIA , 2001 .

[20]  K. F. Meyer,et al.  Preventive veterinary medicine. , 1948, Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association.

[21]  Rowland R Kao,et al.  The impact of local heterogeneity on alternative control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease , 2003, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[22]  J. Callis.  National and International Foot and Mouth Disease Control Programmes in Panama, Central and North America , 1978 .

[23]  J. Renkema,et al.  Livestock response functions , 1986 .

[24]  W. A. Geering,et al.  Veterinary epidemiology and economics. Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, held at Canberra, Australia, 7-11 May 1979. , 1980 .

[25]  Richard E Howitt,et al.  A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth-disease: II. Model results and policy implications. , 2007, Preventive Veterinary Medicine.