Hydrogen's role in an uncertain energy future

Abstract This study explores global energy demand, and hydrogen's role, over the 21st century. It considers four illustrative cases: a high (1000 EJ) and a low (300 EJ) energy future, and for each of these conditions, a high (80%) and low (20%) fossil fuel energy share. We argue that neither high energy future is probable, because of resource limitations, and rising energy, environmental and money costs per unit of delivered energy as annual energy demand rises far beyond present levels. The low energy/low fossil case is most likely, followed by the low energy/high fossil case, although both require large cuts in energy use, and most probably, lifestyle changes in high energy use countries. Hydrogen production would be best favoured in the low fossil fuel options, with production both greater, and implemented earlier, in the higher energy case. It is thus least likely in the low energy/high fossil fuel case.

[1]  Damon Honnery,et al.  Mitigating greenhouse : Limited time, limited options , 2008 .

[2]  Bob van der Zwaan.  Nuclear energy: Tenfold expansion or phase-out? , 2002 .

[3]  E. Parson.  Reflections on Air Capture: the political economy of active intervention in the global environment , 2006 .

[4]  CAN RENEWABLE ENERGY AVERT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE , 2005 .

[5]  B. D. Vries,et al.  Renewable energy sources: Their global potential for the first-half of the 21st century at a global level: An integrated approach , 2007 .

[6]  Ted Trainer,et al.  Renewable Energy Cannot Sustain a Consumer Society , 2007 .

[7]  P. Moriarty,et al.  Low-mobility: The future of transport , 2008 .

[8]  Yasser Fathi Nassar,et al.  The reliability of the photovoltaic utilization in southern cities of Libya , 2007 .

[9]  Zaipu Tao,et al.  What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies—A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak , 2007 .

[10]  Renato Baciocchi,et al.  Process design and energy requirements for the capture of carbon dioxide from air , 2006 .

[11]  Bernhard Lehner,et al.  The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis , 2005 .

[12]  T. Veziroglu,et al.  The properties of hydrogen as fuel tomorrow in sustainable energy system for a cleaner planet , 2005 .

[13]  Damon Honnery,et al.  Global bioenergy: problems and prospects , 2007 .

[14]  Ronan.  Plan B 3.0 : Mobilizing to Save Civilization , 2008 .

[15]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[16]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization , 2007 .

[17]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate , 2008 .

[18]  P. Kruger.  Electric power required in the world by 2050 with hydrogen fuel production—Revised , 2005 .

[19]  Jonathan G. Koomey,et al.  The risk of surprise in energy technology costs , 2007 .

[20]  S P Potter,et al.  Energy supply. , 1973, Science.

[21]  D. Rutledge.  Hubbert’s peak, the coal question, and climate change , 2008, 2008 33rd International Conference on Infrared, Millimeter and Terahertz Waves.

[22]  V. Masson‐Delmotte,et al.  Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? , 2008, 0804.1126.

[23]  Charles Francis,et al.  Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization. By Lester R. Brown. W.W. Norton and Co., New York, NY. 368 p., paper, $16.95, ISBN 978-0-393-33719-8. , 2010, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems.

[24]  R. Banerjee,et al.  Comparison of biohydrogen production processes , 2008 .

[25]  David W. Keith,et al.  Climate Strategy with Co2 Capture from the Air , 2001 .

[26]  C. Field,et al.  Biomass energy: the scale of the potential resource. , 2008, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[27]  D. R. Simbeck,et al.  CO2 capture and storage—the essential bridge to the hydrogen economy , 2004 .

[28]  G. Marbán,et al.  Towards the hydrogen economy , 2007 .

[29]  W. Krewitt,et al.  The 2°C scenario - A sustainable world energy perspective , 2007 .

[30]  N. Lewis,et al.  Powering the planet: Chemical challenges in solar energy utilization , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[31]  S. Lincoln.  Fossil Fuels in the 21st Century , 2005, Ambio.

[32]  Debabrata Das,et al.  ADVANCES IN BIOLOGICAL HYDROGEN PRODUCTION PROCESSES , 2008 .

[33]  David Lewis,et al.  Hydrogen and its relationship with nuclear energy , 2008 .

[34]  P. Moriarty,et al.  Intermittent renewable energy: The only future source of hydrogen? , 2007 .

[35]  W. D. Hakin,et al.  Defusing the situation , 2002 .

[36]  Stephen W Pacala,et al.  A plan to keep carbon in check. , 2006, Scientific American.

[37]  T. Barnett,et al.  Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions , 2005, Nature.

[38]  J. Bockris,et al.  Will lack of energy lead to the demise of high-technology countries in this century? , 2007 .

[39]  James Mason,et al.  World energy analysis : H2 now or later? , 2007 .

[40]  Matthew R Melnicki,et al.  Integrated biological hydrogen production , 2006 .

[41]  M. Heimann,et al.  Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks , 2008, Nature.

[42]  G. Harrison,et al.  Sensitivity of hydropower performance to climate change , 2006 .