Comprehensive hazard assessment model for consequences caused by dam failure based on fuzzy mathematics method

This paper introduces a renovated hazard assessment model for the consequences caused by dam failure based on the fuzzy mathematics method.Since such dam failure hazard assessment involves a lot of correlated factors of uncertainties,it is of essential necessity to evade subjective factors as many as possible.In this way,a fuzzy mathematics method is expected to make the complex uncertainty factors visualized.The method asks for thorough analysis and evaluation of the objects,events and happenings,which makes the evaluation results precise and persuasive.Moreover,the AHP method tends to take into account all the elements,hoping to weigh all the evaluation results concerned.As a case study,this model is used to evaluate the consequences of dam hazard assessment of five reservoirs in Jiangxi Province.When applying the AHP method to evaluating and weighing dam-break factors,such as life loss,economic loss,environmental and social impact,dam hazard rating and consequence rating have actually been judged and identified by using the correlation analysis method.The analysis results show that the aftermath or consequences of the failure of the above five reservoirs are all serious and belong to the special events of the dam-breaks.Thus the trial application of the model shows that the fuzzy mathematics method tends to reflect the dam hazard level more objectively with its application procedures being simple and rational for operation.Therefore,it can be considered as a promising method with great potential for future development.