Computerized Simulation in the Social Sciences

After years at the periphery of the social sciences, simulation is now emerging as an important and widely used tool for understanding social phenomena. Through simulation, researchers can identify causal effects, specify critical parameter estimates, and clarify the state of the art with respect to what is understood about how processes evolve over time. Moreover, simulation methods are often the most time-effective and cost-effective means of doing so and sometimes are the only means. This essay outlines current developments in the four main branches of social science simulation: systems dynamics models, network models (including neural network models), spatial models, and agent-based models. The limitations of simulation modeling are also discussed, along with methods for evaluating the validity of social science computer simulations.

[1]  R. Keith Sawyer,et al.  Simulating Emergence and Downward Causation in Small Groups , 2000, MABS.

[2]  S. Read,et al.  A Neural Network Simulation of the Outgroup Homogeneity Effect , 2003, Personality and social psychology review : an official journal of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

[3]  Tara Leweling,et al.  Using Systems Dynamics to Explore Effects of Counterterrorism Policy , 2007, 2007 40th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'07).

[4]  Gary William Hecht,et al.  Social Behaviors, Enforcement, and Tax Compliance Dynamics , 2003 .

[5]  Scott Moss Canonical Tasks, Environments and Models for Social Simulation , 2000, Comput. Math. Organ. Theory.

[6]  D. W. Fiske Consistency of the factorial structures of personality ratings from different sour sources. , 1949, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[7]  R. Axelrod The Dissemination of Culture , 1997 .

[8]  Mark E. Nissen,et al.  Defining and exploring the terrorism field: Toward an intertheoretic, agent-based approach , 2007 .

[9]  L. Nadel,et al.  Cognitive neuroscience of emotion , 2000 .

[10]  D. Meadows,et al.  The limits to growth. A report for the Club of Rome's project on the predicament of mankind. , 1972 .

[11]  Kim M. Bloomquist A Comparison of Agent-Based Models of Income Tax Evasion , 2006 .

[12]  George P. Richardson,et al.  Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling with DYNAMO , 1981 .

[13]  Eric Bouvier,et al.  Crowd simulation in immersive space management , 1996 .

[14]  Céline Loscos,et al.  Image/Based Crowd Rendering , 2002, IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications.

[15]  Xiaodong Sun,et al.  Simulation of Employee Behavior Based on Cellular Automata Model , 2007, International Conference on Computational Science.

[16]  T. Schelling Micromotives and Macrobehavior , 1978 .

[17]  David L. Sallach,et al.  Social theory and agent architectures: prospective issues in rapid-discovery social science , 2003 .

[18]  J. Richard Harrison,et al.  Simulation in the Social Sciences , 2008, Simul. Model. Pract. Theory.

[19]  Robert L. Axtell,et al.  Aligning simulation models: A case study and results , 1996, Comput. Math. Organ. Theory.

[20]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up , 1996 .

[21]  William Rand,et al.  Making Models Match: Replicating an Agent-Based Model , 2007, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[22]  Todd Chamberlain Systems Dynamics Model of Al-Qa'ida and United States "Competition" , 2007 .

[23]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Modeling civil violence: An agent-based computational approach , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[24]  Tuncer Ören,et al.  Cognitive complexity and dynamic personality in agent simulation , 2007, Comput. Hum. Behav..

[25]  Colin M. Beale,et al.  Managing visitor access to seabird colonies: a spatial simulation and empirical observations , 2007 .

[26]  Nadia Magnenat-Thalmann,et al.  Generic personality and emotion simulation for conversational agents , 2004, Comput. Animat. Virtual Worlds.

[27]  David H. Coursey,et al.  Does Visualization Affect Perceptions of Ethically Complex Policy Decisions: An Experimental Study , 2007, 2007 40th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'07).

[28]  Ahmad Baraani-Dastjerdi,et al.  A personality-based simulation of bargaining in e-commerce , 2008 .

[29]  Kathleen M. Carley Destabilization of covert networks , 2006, Comput. Math. Organ. Theory.

[30]  James H. Liu,et al.  Distance Matters: Physical Space and Social Impact , 1995 .

[31]  J. U. Hense,et al.  Theory-oriented evaluation for the design of and research in gaming and simulation , 2006 .

[32]  Martina Morris,et al.  ergm: A Package to Fit, Simulate and Diagnose Exponential-Family Models for Networks. , 2008, Journal of statistical software.

[33]  J. Sterman Business Dynamics , 2000 .

[34]  Timothy A. Kohler,et al.  Be there then: a modeling approach to settlement determinants and spatial efficiency among late ancestral pueblo populations of the Mesa Verde region, U.S. southwest , 2000 .

[35]  Mark Lake,et al.  MAGICAL computer simulation of mesolithic foraging , 2000 .

[36]  Kathleen M. Eisenhardt,et al.  Developing Theory Through Simulation Methods , 2006 .

[37]  Jay Wright Forrester,et al.  Urban Dynamics , 1969 .

[38]  Kathleen M. Carley,et al.  NETEST: Estimating a Terrorist Network's Structure—Graduate Student Best Paper Award, CASOS 2002 Conference , 2002, Comput. Math. Organ. Theory.

[39]  Tara Sharma,et al.  Integrated modeling for exploring sustainable agriculture futures , 2006 .

[40]  G. Nigel Gilbert,et al.  Simulation for the social scientist , 1999 .

[41]  Charles M. Macal,et al.  Introduction: The Simulation of Social Agents , 2001 .

[42]  Frederic D. McKenzie,et al.  Integrating crowd-behavior modeling into military simulation using game technology , 2008 .

[43]  N. Gilbert A Simulation of the Structure of Academic Science , 1997 .

[44]  John R. Raser,et al.  Simulation and society : an exploration of scientific gaming , 1969 .

[45]  A. Abbott Transcending General Linear Reality , 1988 .

[46]  Arthur L. Stinchcombe,et al.  When Formality Works: Authority and Abstraction in Law and Organizations , 2001 .

[47]  Geert Vissers,et al.  The Validity of Games , 1998 .

[48]  John D. Sterman,et al.  System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002 .

[49]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Understanding Anasazi culture change through agent-based modeling , 2000 .

[50]  Arantza Aldea,et al.  Emotions in human and artificial intelligence , 2005, Comput. Hum. Behav..

[51]  Thomas C. Schelling,et al.  Dynamic models of segregation , 1971 .

[52]  William Sims Bainbridge,et al.  Neural Network Models of Religious Belief , 1995 .

[53]  Martina Morris,et al.  A statnet Tutorial. , 2008, Journal of statistical software.

[54]  Dennis L. Meadows,et al.  Die Grenzen des Wachstums : Bericht des Club of Rome zur Lage der Menschheit , 1972 .

[55]  Takashi Yoshida,et al.  Consumer Behavior Modeling Based on Social Psychology and Complex Networks , 2007, The 9th IEEE International Conference on E-Commerce Technology and The 4th IEEE International Conference on Enterprise Computing, E-Commerce and E-Services (CEC-EEE 2007).