Theoretical Guidance on Evacuation Decisions after a Big Nuclear Accident under the Assumption That Evacuation Is Desirable

The development of nuclear power is a major measure for implementing energy-saving and emission reduction strategies all over the world. For a long time, the hazards of nuclear accidents have been obstacles to the development of nuclear power. Temporary evacuation is the fastest and most effective emergency measure to ensure the safety of residents in a short period of time after a nuclear accident. Numerous nuclear accident emergency management personnel make judgments based on personal work experience and subjective awareness when formulating a nuclear accident emergency evacuation plan. How to make a scientific and reasonable decision on the emergency evacuation of nuclear accidents in the shortest time is a common problem faced by many emergency departments when a nuclear accident occurs. In a complex and ever-changing radiation environment, how to maximize the use of limited information and make decisions quickly in an uncertain environment is a core issue that effectively reduces the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper constructs a set of assessment system of nuclear accident emergency evacuation plan selection based on the characteristics of nuclear accident emergencies under uncertain environmental conditions. It uses triangular fuzzy language to describe nuclear accident emergency evacuation decision plans and the weighting of relevant factors. Additionally, the K-means clustering method is used to calculate the weight of experts, which reduces the influence of subjective factors considered by decision makers. Finally, a decision model for emergency evacuation of nuclear accidents is constructed based on the TOPSIS decision model.

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