THE ELASTICITY OF MEDIUM-DISTANCE RAIL TRAVEL

This report describes further analysis of British rail's "national passenger accounting and analysis system" data to estimate demand elasticities with respect to rail fares, following a preliminary report of results obtained from a study of passenger flows between 60 towns and central London termini, over distances up to 120 kilometres. A fresh analysis of an enlarged data base (consisting of the original 60 flows plus a further 80 flows) using a modified form of analysis has estimated mean fare elasticities for season, cheap-day and full-fare tickets of -0.50 plus or minus 0.07, -0.65 plus or minus 0.06 and -0.20 plus or minus 0.04 respectively, although the errors on the means probably overstate the accuracy of these estimates because systematic errors may well be present. The latest analyses showed that the estimated elasticities were independent of the size of the passenger flow and of distance from London, except in the case of cheap-day trips where the greater the distance travelled the more elastic the journeys. Journey-time elasticities were estimated for two stations in the western region served by the high speed train; both values were found to be about -0.7 plus or minus 0.3 for off-peak travel. The reduction in mean journey time during the peak, however, was too small to enable elasticities to be estimated. A service frequency elasticity of 0.6 plus or minus 0.3 was obtained for season ticket travel from just one of the stations. (Author/TRRL)