Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosys- tems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this ap- proach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probabil- ity and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipita- tion-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is cal- culated from the response to drought simulated by process- based vegetation models. We use six different models: three for generic vegeta- tion (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for spe- cific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk anal- ysis is carried out for 18 000 grid cells of 0.25 0.25

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