The impact of China's natural gas import risks on the national economy

Abstract The import risks confronting gas consumers are influenced by, among other factors, geopolitics, transport conditions, and gas prices. Given the increase in China's natural gas imports (NGIs), evaluating the influence of natural gas import risks (NGIRs) on the national economy is necessary. First, China's NGIRs are quantified by considering country, transport and dependence risks. Second, this paper uses a co-integration model to explore the relationship between NGIRs and natural gas import costs (NGICs). Third, an input-output analysis is used to analyse the influence of NGICs on the national economy. The results show that the corresponding impact on gross domestic product (GDP) is 2305.2 million Yuan, assuming a 10% increase in China's NGIRs. The impact of NGIRs differs across domestic sectors; the oil & gas extraction (S3) and gas production and supply (S24) sectors are the most heavily affected. Finally, some suggestions are proposed to improve China's long-term natural gas import security such as improving early warning services for maritime disaster risks.

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